Middle East: Widespread moderate to exceptional water deficits forecast across much of the Middle East and Turkey through September, Surpluses along the Iraq-Iran border and northeast Turkey

The 12-month composite map (below) shows widespread moderate to exceptional water deficits that are forecast across much of the Middle East and Turkey through September. Surpluses are forecast along the Iraq-Iran border and a small region in northeast Turkey.

The 3-month composites (below) for the same 12-month period show the evolving conditions in more detail. Widespread exceptional deficits on the Arabian Peninsula are forecast to diminish in severity January through March. During this period deficits in Turkey are forecast to spread to most of the country, though surpluses are forecast to persist in the northeast. Surpluses are also expected to persist in Iran along the Caspian Sea and in the western province of Kermanshah. From April through June deficits are forecast to increase in severity with exceptional deficits forecast for eastern Yemen/western Oman, United Arab Emirates, and central Iran. From July through September deficits are forecast to intensify in southern Turkey, the West Bank, Iraq, and Iran.

(It should be noted that forecast skill declines with longer lead times.) 

Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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