Blog — ISCIENCES

Central Asia & Russia: Water surpluses forecast in Kazakhstan and central Russia, deficits in Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan

Exceptional water surpluses are forecast along rivers in Kazakhstan and in central Russia from the Volga River through the Ural Mountains to the western edge of the Central Siberian Plateau. Water deficits are expected in Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan and are forecast to persist through October.

Australia: Water surpluses forecast in Northern Territory, deficits persist in Victoria and Tasmania

Water surpluses are forecast for Northern Territory, and persistent deficits in Victoria and Tasmania. Deficits are forecast through April in the Murray-Darling Basin which transition to moderate surpluses thereafter.

East Asia: Water surpluses persist in southeast China, deficits forecast in the North China Plain

Moderate to exceptional water surpluses are forecast to persist in southeast China. Moderate deficits are forecast for northeast China, and both deficits and surpluses are forecast in western regions including the Tibetan Plateau. 

South Asia: Water deficits forecast to persist in India, transitioning to surpluses in June

Widespread water deficits, with large areas of exceptional deficits, are forecast for much of India through April 2016. Both deficits and surpluses are forecast during this period for southeastern India and Sri Lanka. Deficits are expected to transition to moderate to severe surpluses June through October. Moderate surpluses are also forecast to emerge along the northern portion of the Indus River in Pakistan in August. 

Europe: Severe to exceptional water deficits are forecast to emerge throughout Mediterranean Europe, surpluses in Ireland and Northern UK

Severe to exceptional water deficits are forecast to emerge throughout Mediterranean Europe, with greatest extent and severity in eastern Spain, Corsica, Sardinia, Italy, southern Greece, and Crete. Exceptional surpluses are forecast for Ireland and northern United Kingdom.

Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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