In the near-term, Europe is forecast to experience generally moderate water deficits with more exceptional conditions affecting the Baltic States, Finland and southern Sweden. On the mainland the Benelux States as well as portions of Austria and Italy may experience more intense conditions. These are forecast to moderate steady through the mid-forecast period shifting to moderate surpluses across most of northern Europe in the December through February 2018 time frame. A pocket of exceptional surpluses in eastern Romania persists throughout the forecast, moderating slightly in early 2018.
Europe: Water deficits in Finland, surpluses forecast for western European Russia
From March through May widespread water surpluses are forecast to emerge in western European Russia, which may be exceptional near St. Petersburg and to the east. Severe to exceptional deficits are forecast for Finland, Estonia, much of Latvia, southern Sweden and Denmark. Scattered moderate deficits are forecast for much of Western and Central Europe with pockets of greater severity in central Germany, southern Austria, Macedonia, and from Rome to Palermo, Italy. Surpluses are forecast for Switzerland and eastern Romania. The June through August forecast indicates primarily moderate deficits throughout most of Europe with widespread exceptional deficits persisting in Finland and Estonia.
ISciences Worldwide Water Watch List March 2017
Regions likely to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period from December 2016 through November 2017 include: Arkansas, Quebec, Brazil, Finland, Denmark, Libya, Niger, Gabon, Madagascar, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, northern Russia, Inner Mongolia, Thailand, western Cambodia, Papua New Guinea, and eastern Australia. Water surpluses are forecast for: Idaho, Central California, southwestern Zambia, the Okavango Delta in Botswana, northeastern Afghanistan, and between the Irtysh and Yenisei Rivers in Russia. This Watch List is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) Global Water Monitor and Forecast issued 8 March 2017.
Europe: Water deficits to persist in Mediterranean Europe, surpluses persist in UK & Ireland
Water deficits will persist in parts of Mediterranean Europe including southern Spain and Portugal, Sardinia, Sicily, southern Greece, and Crete. Surpluses will persist in the United Kingdom and Ireland. Central and Eastern Europe are transitioning from surplus to deficits. Exceptional deficits are forecast for Finland and the Baltics.