Exceptional deficits will remain in areas near Lake Baikal and in much of western Russia. Northern and southeastern Kazakhstan will observe continuing surpluses of varying intensity, as will some Russian areas near the Lena River.
Exceptional deficits will mostly resolve in northern, southern, and central countries, but will persist in the Horn of Africa. Surpluses along the Sahel are expected to remain.
Severe to exceptional surplus will affect several regions of southern Mexico and Central America. Severe to exceptional deficits will continue in northwestern and central areas of Mexico.
Widespread severe to exceptional surpluses in western and central Europe will mostly resolve, becoming near-normal conditions. Eastern European countries are expected to observe widespread deficits of varying intensity.
Regions forecast to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period from May 2019 through April 2020 include: Canada, French Guiana, Chile, Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Egypt, Libya, Uzbekistan, and New Caledonia. Areas with a forecast of significant water surplus include: the United States, Syria, southern Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, Bangladesh, and southeastern China. This Watch List is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model v2 (WSIMv2) run on 5 August 2019
The forecast through September indicates that water deficits will shrink and downgrade overall, leaving moderate to severe deficits across the north and generally milder deficits in the south, punctuated by more intense pockets. Areas of exceptional deficit include Ethiopia west of Addis Ababa, coastal Côte d’Ivoire, southeastern Nigeria, and pockets of Zambia, Zimbabwe, and Botswana. Surpluses are forecast in Tanzania, Uganda, and south of Durban and west of Johannesburg, South Africa.
The forecast through August 2019 indicates moderate water deficits across northern Africa with large pockets of exceptional deficit in Libya, Egypt, and Sudan. The southern Sahara and the Sahel will be near-normal, and deficits in the Horn will downgrade. Mild deficits will cover much of southern Africa, punctuated by surpluses in East Africa and some pockets of intense deficit from Cameroon through Republic of the Congo, in southern Angola, northern Namibia, and western Botswana.
The forecast through July indicates that water deficits will downgrade in the southern half of the continent and across its midsection from the Gulf of Guinea to the Horn of Africa but will intensify across northern Africa with exceptional deficits expected. Moderate to severe deficits are forecast in the south, with intense deficits in Namibia. Areas of surpluses include Tanzania, northern Madagascar, the mouth of the Congo River, and the northern coast of the Gulf of Guinea.
The forecast through June indicates that water deficits will downgrade in the southern half of the continent and its midsection but will intensify across the north. In the Horn, deficits will downgrade but exceptional deficits are forecast for Somalia from the Jubba River past the Shabelle River. Intense deficits are expected in Zambia, Zimbabwe, southwestern Angola, and the Okavango Delta. Areas of surplus include western Tanzania and south-central Chad.
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