In this new series, we examine recent prolonged drought in the Yangtze River Basin, its impact on the affected regions, and the historical accuracy of the Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) forecasts in East Asia.
Exceptional deficits will spread throughout the Russian Plain, northern coastal Russia, and regions near Lake Baikal. Surpluses are expected in some portions of northern Russia and north-central Kazakhstan.
Severe to exceptional deficits will occur throughout most of eastern Europe. Severe to exceptional surpluses in western Europe are expected to dissipate.
The forecast through June indicates widespread water deficits across northern Mexico and in some eastern states, with pockets of intense deficit in the north. Surpluses are expected in Central America.
The forecast through September indicates that water deficits in northern Mexico will retreat and surpluses will emerge in Sonora and Durango. In the south, surpluses will retreat as generally mild deficits emerge. Deficits will also emerge in El Salvador.
The August 2020 Outlook indicates much wetter than normal conditions in Gujarat, India and in the Horn of Africa. Notable areas with a forecast of exceptionally warmer than normal temperatures include eastern Canada, much of southern China into Southeast Asia, and Queensland, Australia.
The forecast through July indicates that water anomalies will shrink considerably throughout the region but intense deficits will persist in Chihuahua, Mexico and surpluses will persist in Sonora. Surpluses are also forecast in pockets of Central America.
The forecast through May indicates intense water surpluses in Sonora, Mexico, and surpluses of varying intensity in many regions of Central America. Deficits will increase in Chihuahua and Coahuila in northern Mexico and in the eastern Yucatan.