Mexico, Central America, & the Caribbean: Water deficits in N Mexico

25 April 2022

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast ending December indicates widespread water deficits of varying intensity in the Baja Peninsula and Mexico’s north-central and northeastern states. Anomalies will be severe to exceptional in much of Baja and exceptional in the Colorado River Delta. Exceptional deficits are also expected in Coahuila and Nuevo León. Deficits of lesser intensity are forecast for Chihuahua and northern Durango.

From Tamaulipas on the Gulf of Mexico through the land-locked states of San Luis Potosi and Querétaro, deficits will reach extreme intensity, moderating to the south through Veracruz and Puebla, though anomalies will be extreme in the Papaloapan River region of Veracruz.

In Central America, surpluses are expected in western Panama and pockets of Costa Rica, northern Honduras, and along Nicaragua’s east coast. Surpluses are also forecast in the Caribbean.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

The forecast through June indicates widespread deficits across northern Mexico and the Baja Peninsula. Deficits will be moderate overall but will reach exceptional intensity in southern Baja, the Lower Colorado River, and northern Sonora and Chihuahua. From central Chihuahua past the Conchos River into the southeast, anomalies will be severe to exceptional. Moderate deficits are forecast in the east from Nuevo León and Tamaulipas reaching inland and south through San Luis Potosi into Puebla. In west-central Mexico, surpluses will form a path from southern Sinaloa on the Pacific Coast reaching inland through Durango and Zacatecas and south into the Federal District. Surpluses are also expected in coastal regions along the Pacific from Jalisco through Michoacán, and pockets in the southern states. Central America, too, can expect surpluses, widespread from southern Nicaragua through much of Panama where anomalies will reach extreme intensity; across northern Honduras; pockets of Guatemala; and most of Belize. Surpluses are also forecast in the Caribbean.

From July through September, deficits in Mexico will shrink and downgrade considerably. Moderate deficits will linger in northern Baja and southern Chihuahua. Deficits will intensify in the east from Nuevo León and Tamaulipas through Puebla becoming severe or even extreme in some pockets and will emerge in Veracruz and further south. Some pockets of moderate surplus will linger in the west in southern Durango and western Jalisco. Surpluses in Central America will shrink considerably, and some moderate deficits will emerge in pockets of the northern nations. Surpluses will shrink in the Caribbean as well.

The forecast for the final three months – October through December – indicates some primarily moderate deficits in Mexico’s central north and in several of the land-locked states in the central east. A few pockets of moderate deficit are forecast in northern Central America and pockets of moderate surplus in the south and in the Caribbean.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Conagua, Mexico’s water authority, reports that as of the end of March only four of the country’s 210 main reservoirs are 100 percent filled. Collectively, the nation’s dam levels have dropped by over 1,500 cubic meters of water since the prior week. In Sonora, a northern state, 72 municipalities were in total drought and 39 in Durango.

Drought has reduced reservoir water levels in Cuba’s largest province, Camaguey, to just over 30 percent of capacity. March rainfall in the region was 65 percent below the historic average.

Excessive rainfall caused flooding and damage in several areas of Costa Rica in mid-April. The Niñey River in Valle de la Estrella Canton burst its banks, damaging a bridge and forcing its closure. Rivers and sewers overflowed in Limón City, Puerto Viejo, Siquirres, and Pococi.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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