Exceptional surpluses will persist in northern regions of Mainland Southeast Asia. Most areas of Maritime Southeast Asia will observe near-normal conditions.
Severe to exceptional surpluses are expected to persist in several regions of India and emerge in Bangladesh. Some South Asian countries will observe isolated pockets of deficit.
Exceptional deficit anomalies will continue in southern regions of the Middle East, as well as in coastal regions of Turkey. Isolated pockets of exceptional deficit will also persist in Iran. Southwestern coastal areas of the Middle East will continue to observe moderate to severe surplus.
Exceptional deficits will remain in areas near Lake Baikal and in much of western Russia. Northern and southeastern Kazakhstan will observe continuing surpluses of varying intensity, as will some Russian areas near the Lena River.
Through January 2020 deficits will shrink and downgrade overall, persisting primarily in Brazil and Chile. In Brazil, intense deficits are forecast in Amapá, Pará, Maranhão, Bahia and its smaller east coast neighbors, Paraná, and São Paulo State. Areas of surplus include Colombia, southern Venezuela, Ecuador, northern Peru, Uruguay, and Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil.
The forecast through December indicates that water deficits will diminish across the continent, though intense anomalies will persist in French Guiana, Suriname, Amapá and Pará, Brazil. Severe to extreme anomalies are forecast for São Paulo State. Anomalies elsewhere include deficits in Chile and north-central Venezuela, and surpluses in central Colombia, northern Peru, and Uruguay.
Regions forecast to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period from July 2019 through June 2020 include: Canada, Brazil, French Guiana, Chile, Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Ukraine, Egypt, Libya, United Arab Emirates, and Australia. Areas with a forecast of significant water surplus include: United States, Uruguay, Tanzania, Ireland, United Kingdom, India, Bangladesh, and China. This Watch List is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model v2 (WSIMv2) run on 7 October 2019
The forecast through August 2019 indicates that water deficits in Colombia, Venezuela, Guyana, and northwestern Brazil will downgrade considerably. However, severe to exceptional deficits are forecast for Suriname, French Guiana, and many regions of Brazil including Amapá, the southern Amazon Basin, and São Paulo State. Intense deficits will emerge tracing the Andes Mountains through Peru and into Chile. Surpluses will persist in central and eastern Paraguay and in northern Argentina.
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