The forecast indicates that extreme to exceptional surpluses in northern Australia will diminish, though will still remain present in some regions of Northern Territory. Exceptional deficits across the continent will similarly dissipate, though severe deficits are expected along the southern coast of Victoria.
The forecast indicates that exceptional deficits will persist in northwestern China, southwestern Mongolia, and in the Yangtze River Basin. Surpluses of severe to exceptional intensity are expected to appear in western, southern, and northeastern regions of China.
The forecast indicates that extreme to exceptional surpluses will persist throughout India and Nepal. Exceptional deficits will expand throughout regions of Afghanistan and Pakistan.
The forecast indicates that exceptional deficits will occur in southwestern states, as well as in some areas of the Midwest. Severe to exceptional surpluses will linger in southern regions of Florida and in much of the noncontiguous U.S.
The forecast through March 2020 indicates that water deficits in the region will shrink considerably. Nearly normal water conditions are forecast for much of the Amazon Basin in Brazil and eastern and southern states, but intense deficits will increase in central Brazil. Deficits will persist in much of Chile. Areas of surplus include Venezuela’s Orinoco Delta, central Colombia, and northern Peru.
Through January 2020 deficits will shrink and downgrade overall, persisting primarily in Brazil and Chile. In Brazil, intense deficits are forecast in Amapá, Pará, Maranhão, Bahia and its smaller east coast neighbors, Paraná, and São Paulo State. Areas of surplus include Colombia, southern Venezuela, Ecuador, northern Peru, Uruguay, and Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil.
The forecast through June indicates that water deficits in Brazil will shrink, with nearly normal conditions in Pará and Amazonas, but intense deficits are forecast for Mato Grosso, Tocantins, Goiás, Mato Grosso do Sul, Minas Gerais, western São Paulo, and along many rivers. Surpluses will increase in northeastern states. Exceptional deficits will trace a path along the Pacific Coast from Lima, Peru reaching almost to Santiago, Chile. Surpluses will increase and intensify in Paraguay.
The forecast through April indicates that water deficits in the Amazon Basin will shrink. Deficits are forecast for many other parts of Brazil, including intense deficits in Maranhão, eastern Goiás, Minas Gerais, São Paulo, and along many rivers. Deficits are also forecast for Brazil’s northern neighbors, and Peru and Chile. Surpluses are forecast for central Paraguay, northeastern Argentina, Uruguay, and Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil.
Regions forecast to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period from November 2018 through October 2019 include: Quebec (Canada), Finland, Latvia, Somalia, Angola, Iran, Thailand, Cambodia, and Australia. Areas with a forecast of significant water surplus include: Kansas and Texas (US), Paraguay, Uruguay, Syria, Tanzania, and China. This Watch List is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) run on 8 February 2019.
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