In this new series, we examine recent prolonged drought in the Yangtze River Basin, its impact on the affected regions, and the historical accuracy of the Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) forecasts in East Asia.
Exceptional deficits will spread throughout the Russian Plain, northern coastal Russia, and regions near Lake Baikal. Surpluses are expected in some portions of northern Russia and north-central Kazakhstan.
Severe to exceptional deficits will occur throughout most of eastern Europe. Severe to exceptional surpluses in western Europe are expected to dissipate.
The forecast through September indicates widespread water deficits in North Africa and normal conditions in the Sahel. Intense deficits will shrink in Angola, Namibia, and Northern Cape, South Africa but will emerge in eastern Kenya and Zambia.
The forecast through December indicates that water deficits in North Africa will moderate though some large pockets of exceptional deficit are expected in the western Sahara Desert. Surpluses are forecast in the Sahel, East Africa, northern Somalia, and pockets of South Africa.
The forecast through October indicates that intense water deficits will shrink in Morocco but emerge in western Algeria. Widespread surpluses will persist in East Africa. Exceptional deficits will disappear from the Horn of Africa and will nearly disappear from southern Africa.
The August 2020 Outlook indicates much wetter than normal conditions in Gujarat, India and in the Horn of Africa. Notable areas with a forecast of exceptionally warmer than normal temperatures include eastern Canada, much of southern China into Southeast Asia, and Queensland, Australia.
The forecast through September indicates water deficits across northern Africa, nearly normal conditions in the Sahel and central African nations, intense surpluses in East Africa, and generally mild deficits in the south.