Africa: Water surplus will persist in the Sahel & E. Africa

22 October 2020

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast through June 2021 indicates widespread, intense water deficits across North Africa including many areas with exceptional anomalies. Mixed conditions of both deficit and surplus are also forecast as transitions occur (pink/purple).

Surpluses of varying intensity are forecast across the Sahel, reaching into northern Nigeria where anomalies will be exceptional and southern Sudan where surpluses will be extreme to exceptional.

In the Horn of Africa, surpluses will be exceptional in the Nugaal region of northern Somalia but will be moderate slightly south and in south-central Ethiopia. Southern Eritrea and Djibouti can expect intense deficits.

ISciences_Africa_Composite_Adjusted_202007-202106_12mo_twitter.png

West Africa can expect surpluses in Senegal, Guinea Bissau, and from eastern Guinea into northwestern Côte D’Ivoire, but intense pockets of deficit are forecast in Sierra Leone and Nigeria. Intense surpluses are forecast in Central African Republic in a large pocket surrounding the capital city of Bangui and into Democratic Republic of the Congo. Surpluses are forecast in East Africa from eastern Uganda into western Kenya and in much of Tanzania. Anomalies are expected to be exceptional in western Kenya and severe in Dodoma, Tanzania.

Much of central and southern Africa will see nearly normal water conditions. However, deficits are expected around Cameroon’s northern city of Maroua, and from south central Cameroon through Equatorial Guinea and Gabon and will include intense anomalies. Deficits are also forecast in northern Democratic Republic of the Congo and into southeastern Central African Republic where anomalies will be exceptional. Deficits of lesser intensity are forecast for Angola’s northwestern and southwestern corners. Surpluses are forecast in South Africa’s southwest corner fanning inland from Cape Town.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in greater detail.

The forecast through December indicates that deficits in Africa will shrink and downgrade considerably though some areas of exceptional deficit are expected in the western Sahara Desert, Eritrea into Ethiopia, and Angola’s southwestern corner. Deficits in North Africa will moderate overall with some scattered, intense pockets and transitional conditions. Moderate deficits are expected in Sierra Leone, eastern Nigeria, and much of Cameroon and spanning the border with Central African Republic (CAR). Deficits will be more intense in CAR’s southeastern corner and into northern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). Moderate deficits are expected in the central Congo River Basin.

ISciences_Africa_Composite_Adjusted_202007-202106_3mo_twitter.png

Surpluses of varying intensity will persist in a vast path across the Sahel, dipping into northern regions of Nigeria, CAR, and South Sudan. A pocket of exceptional surplus will persist in northern Somalia’s Nugaal region. In East Africa, surpluses will shrink and downgrade but remain widespread. Surpluses will emerge in northeastern South Africa including Johannesburg and Pretoria, in Swaziland, and along the Limpopo River through southern Mozambique. Surpluses will persist in southwestern South Africa and from Orange Free State into Eastern Cape, while surpluses in Madagascar will nearly disappear.

From January through March 2021, deficits in North Africa will continue to downgrade becoming mild overall with a pocket of intense deficit in central Sudan. Moderate deficits will persist in Sierra Leone and will emerge in western Liberia. Deficits in northern DRC and CAR will shrink. Transitional conditions are forecast in the western Sahel, and persistent surpluses from Chad through southern Sudan and an intense pocket in northern Somalia. Surpluses will shrink somewhat in southern Ethiopia and Kenya and increase in Tanzania while moderating. Nearly normal water conditions are forecast in southern Africa, though surpluses will persist in a few pockets including southwestern South Africa.

The forecast for the final quarter – April through June 2021 – indicates that deficits will increase in the north with intense deficits in the northeast. Surpluses are forecast in the Sahel, northern Somalia, and pockets of East Africa.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Seasonal rainfall caused three Ethiopian dams on the Awash River in the Afar region to overflow in September, displacing more than 144,000 people. The devastation included damage to nearly 60,000 acres of cropland, over 100 schools, 200 roads, 6 bridges, and the loss of 21,000 domestic animals.

Kenya’s Rift Valley Lakes have reached their highest level in over 50 years. Persistent, heavy rainfall in the region has triggered flooding in numerous fresh and saltwater lakes that make up a chain stretching 500 kilometers (310 miles). More than 30,000 people have been displaced and dozens of schools remain submerged, as hippos and crocodiles paddle through the classrooms. Cropland and roads are flooded and the roofs of tourist hotels poke through the waterline.

In Kenya’s West Pokot County, heavy rain in mid-October led to a deadly landslide in which two people lost their lives, five homes were buried, and roads were blocked.

After prolonged rainfall in Sudan, floodwaters have begun to recede but authorities warn that, in addition to a COVID-19 pandemic, 10 million Sudanese are now at risk of contracting water-borne disease. Cases of malaria, chikungunya, and viral haemorrhagic fever have been reported.

The International Monetary Fund estimates that climate change costs sub-Saharan Africa around $520 million in direct economic losses annually and that just one additional drought on the continent can result in a percentage point drop in economic growth.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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