Widespread extreme to exceptional surpluses will dissipate in northern regions of Australia, as will exceptional deficits in several regions of the continent. Severe to extreme surpluses will persist in isolated regions of Western Australia and Northern Territory.
Exceptional deficits will remain widespread in several areas of the Canadian Shield and Atlantic regions. Exceptional surplus is anticipated in much of the Arctic Region.
Widespread deficits of varying intensity will occur in the southwest, northern, and northeastern states. Severe to extreme surpluses will remain in Florida, as well as in most noncontiguous states.
extreme to exceptional surpluses will persist in north-central and south-central regions of India. Exceptional surpluses are expected to emerge in eastern regions of the country, and in some areas of Nepal and Bangladesh. Extreme to exceptional deficits will expand in Afghanistan and Pakistan.
Through January 2020 deficits are forecast for Mongolia, North Korea, and the following regions of China: eastern Xinjiang, southern Yunnan, Taiwan, Fujian, the Shandong Peninsula, southern Henan, Anhui, and Jiangsu. Anomalies will be exceptional in Xinjiang, Mongolia, Yunnan, and Taiwan. Surpluses are forecast in Northeast China and a wide path from Tibet through the Yellow River Basin.
The forecast through December indicates intense water surpluses in Northeast China and surpluses of varying intensity from Tibet through the Yellow River Watershed. Surpluses in China’s south and southeast will shrink and moderate. Deficits are forecast for Shandong, northern Inner Mongolia, eastern Xinjiang, Mongolia, and pockets of North Korea and Honshu, Japan.
Regions forecast to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period from July 2019 through June 2020 include: Canada, Brazil, French Guiana, Chile, Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Ukraine, Egypt, Libya, United Arab Emirates, and Australia. Areas with a forecast of significant water surplus include: United States, Uruguay, Tanzania, Ireland, United Kingdom, India, Bangladesh, and China. This Watch List is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model v2 (WSIMv2) run on 7 October 2019
The forecast through November indicates that water anomalies will shrink and downgrade in the region though surpluses will remain widespread in several vast areas of China including the southeast and northeast. Deficits will downgrade on the Shandong Peninsula, retreat from South Korea, and persist in North Korea, especially around Pyongyang. Near-normal conditions will return to a vast extent across the middle of China and the south. Moderate surpluses will persist in Kyushu, Japan.
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