The forecast indicates that extreme to exceptional surpluses in northern Australia will diminish, though will still remain present in some regions of Northern Territory. Exceptional deficits across the continent will similarly dissipate, though severe deficits are expected along the southern coast of Victoria.
The forecast indicates that exceptional deficits will persist in northwestern China, southwestern Mongolia, and in the Yangtze River Basin. Surpluses of severe to exceptional intensity are expected to appear in western, southern, and northeastern regions of China.
The forecast indicates that extreme to exceptional surpluses will persist throughout India and Nepal. Exceptional deficits will expand throughout regions of Afghanistan and Pakistan.
The forecast indicates that exceptional deficits will occur in southwestern states, as well as in some areas of the Midwest. Severe to exceptional surpluses will linger in southern regions of Florida and in much of the noncontiguous U.S.
Regions forecast to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period of July 2021 through June 2022 include: the U.S. West, Canada, Venezuela, Chile, North Africa, Central Asia, and Hokkaido, Japan. Areas with a forecast of significant water surplus include: China, Nepal, and Bangladesh. This Watch List is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model v2 (WSIMv2) run on 5 October 2021.
The forecast through January 2021 indicates that widespread, intense water surpluses will persist in Northeast China and the Yellow and Yangtze Basins, shrinking south of the Yangtze. Deficits will increase in northwestern and coastal southeastern China. Deficits are forecast in Japan and surpluses in North Korea.
Regions forecast to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period of July 2020 through June 2021 include: Venezuela, French Guiana, Estonia, Latvia, Quebec (Canada), and the U.S. Southwest. Areas with a forecast of significant water surplus include: China, Bangladesh, Pakistan, and the Sahel (Africa). This Watch List is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model v2 (WSIMv2) run on 5 October 2020.
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