Widespread extreme to exceptional surpluses will dissipate in northern regions of Australia, as will exceptional deficits in several regions of the continent. Severe to extreme surpluses will persist in isolated regions of Western Australia and Northern Territory.
Exceptional deficits will remain widespread in several areas of the Canadian Shield and Atlantic regions. Exceptional surplus is anticipated in much of the Arctic Region.
Widespread deficits of varying intensity will occur in the southwest, northern, and northeastern states. Severe to extreme surpluses will remain in Florida, as well as in most noncontiguous states.
extreme to exceptional surpluses will persist in north-central and south-central regions of India. Exceptional surpluses are expected to emerge in eastern regions of the country, and in some areas of Nepal and Bangladesh. Extreme to exceptional deficits will expand in Afghanistan and Pakistan.
The forecast through November indicates that water anomalies will shrink and downgrade in the region though surpluses will remain widespread in several vast areas of China including the southeast and northeast. Deficits will downgrade on the Shandong Peninsula, retreat from South Korea, and persist in North Korea, especially around Pyongyang. Near-normal conditions will return to a vast extent across the middle of China and the south. Moderate surpluses will persist in Kyushu, Japan.
The forecast through October indicates that water deficits will shrink and downgrade considerably, retreating from the Shandong Peninsula, the North China Plain, and Yunnan. Surpluses in southeastern China will remain widespread and the extent of exceptional anomalies will shift east, affecting Fujian, Jiangxi, and northern Guangxi. Primarily moderate deficits are forecast for pockets of the Korean Peninsula. Deficits in northern Japan are expected to shrink and downgrade somewhat.
Regions forecast to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period from May 2019 through April 2020 include: Canada, French Guiana, Chile, Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Egypt, Libya, Uzbekistan, and New Caledonia. Areas with a forecast of significant water surplus include: the United States, Syria, southern Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, Bangladesh, and southeastern China. This Watch List is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model v2 (WSIMv2) run on 5 August 2019
Among warm anomalies in the February Outlook the forecast indicates much higher than normal temperatures in Southeast Asia and along China’s southeast coast and in Taiwan. Conditions are expected to be wetter than normal along the lower Yangtze River, in the US Southwest, and around the Gulf of Guinea in Africa.
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