The forecast indicates that extreme to exceptional surpluses in northern Australia will diminish, though will still remain present in some regions of Northern Territory. Exceptional deficits across the continent will similarly dissipate, though severe deficits are expected along the southern coast of Victoria.
The forecast indicates that exceptional deficits will persist in northwestern China, southwestern Mongolia, and in the Yangtze River Basin. Surpluses of severe to exceptional intensity are expected to appear in western, southern, and northeastern regions of China.
The forecast indicates that extreme to exceptional surpluses will persist throughout India and Nepal. Exceptional deficits will expand throughout regions of Afghanistan and Pakistan.
The forecast indicates that exceptional deficits will occur in southwestern states, as well as in some areas of the Midwest. Severe to exceptional surpluses will linger in southern regions of Florida and in much of the noncontiguous U.S.
Regions forecast to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period of July 2020 through June 2021 include: Venezuela, French Guiana, Estonia, Latvia, Quebec (Canada), and the U.S. Southwest. Areas with a forecast of significant water surplus include: China, Bangladesh, Pakistan, and the Sahel (Africa). This Watch List is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model v2 (WSIMv2) run on 5 October 2020.
The forecast through April indicates that water deficits will shrink and downgrade considerably. Deficits will be exceptional at the confluence of the Murray and Darling Rivers, moderate to severe from Canberra to Melbourne, and intense in Tasmania. Deficits are also forecast in northern New Zealand and in New Caledonia.
Water deficits will shrink and downgrade considerably in Australia through March 2020. Moderate deficits are expected in the southeast from Brisbane, growing more intense as they reach into southern Victoria and Tasmania. Surpluses are forecast in northwestern Western Australia. Deficits will downgrade in New Caledonia.
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