ISciences Worldwide Water Watch List October 2021

ISCIENCES WORLDWIDE WATER WATCH LIST OCTOBER 2021

15 October 2021

This map presents a selection of regions likely to encounter significant water anomalies during the one year period beginning in July 2021 and running through June 2022 using 3 months of observed temperature and precipitation data and 9 months of forecast data.

The synopsis that follows provides highlights of regional water forecasts. Regional details are available in ISciences Global Water Monitor & Forecast Watch List October 15, 2021 (pdf).

United States: The forecast through December indicates that water deficits, while shrinking overall, will persist in the Rockies and Upper Midwest and will increase in the Carolinas and Florida. Surpluses will shrink considerably in the Gulf Coast Region and Northeast but increase in Michigan.

Canada: The forecast through December indicates that water deficits will shrink, most notably in southern regions of the Prairie Provinces and British Columbia, though vast areas of deficit will persist nationwide.

Mexico, Central America, and the Caribbean: The forecast through December indicates water deficits in north-central Mexico, pockets along the Gulf of Mexico, and in the south. Surpluses are forecast from southern Durango through Morelos, and in Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and Jamaica.

South America: The forecast through December indicates that widespread water deficits will shrink considerably and deficits on the Paraná River will become merely mild. However, widespread deficits will persist in Chile. Surpluses will increase in the northern Amazon Basin.

Europe: The forecast through December indicates that water deficits will shrink in the Nordic nations, France, Spain, and Italy, but increase from the Balkans to the Black Sea. Surpluses will shrink in England and Central Europe but persist in southeastern Ukraine.

Africa: The forecast through December indicates widespread water deficits in the continent’s northwest quadrant and exceptional deficits from southeastern Nigeria through central Cameroon. Areas of surplus include southeastern Sudan, Botswana, Western Cape, and several regions in eastern South Africa.

Middle East: The forecast through December indicates that water deficits will shrink and downgrade in Turkey, the Levant, northern Saudi Arabia, and northern Iran. Exceptional deficits will emerge in southern Oman and deficits will intensify in Riyadh Province, Saudi Arabia.

Central Asia and Russia: The forecast through December indicates that widespread water deficits will retreat from Central Asia and the Volga River Basin but persist in the Tura River Watershed to Tyumen and in the Central Siberian Plateau. Surpluses are forecast in the Yenisei Basin.

South Asia: The forecast through December indicates that water surpluses will persist in many regions of India and throughout Nepal and Bangladesh. Surpluses will increase south of Bangalore and intensify in Gujarat and from Maharashtra into Telangana. Deficits in northern Afghanistan will downgrade.

Southeast Asia and the Pacific: The forecast through December indicates that water surpluses will remain widespread though intense anomalies will shrink, persisting in the Mekong River region from southern Laos through eastern Cambodia.

East Asia: The forecast through December indicates widespread, intense water surpluses from Northeast China through the Yellow River Basin and the northern Yangtze Basin. Deficits are forecast in South and Southeast China, and surpluses in North Korea and southern Japan.

Australia & New Zealand: The forecast through December indicates water surpluses in the Macintyre River region of New South Wales and the Avon River catchment in Western Australia. Deficits are forecast from Perth past Busselton, and in Tasmania and New Caledonia.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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