Exceptional surpluses will persist in northern regions of Mainland Southeast Asia. Most areas of Maritime Southeast Asia will observe near-normal conditions.
Severe to exceptional surpluses are expected to persist in several regions of India and emerge in Bangladesh. Some South Asian countries will observe isolated pockets of deficit.
Exceptional deficit anomalies will continue in southern regions of the Middle East, as well as in coastal regions of Turkey. Isolated pockets of exceptional deficit will also persist in Iran. Southwestern coastal areas of the Middle East will continue to observe moderate to severe surplus.
Exceptional deficits will remain in areas near Lake Baikal and in much of western Russia. Northern and southeastern Kazakhstan will observe continuing surpluses of varying intensity, as will some Russian areas near the Lena River.
Exceptional water surpluses are forecast in north central Kazakhstan; farther west between the Ural and Emba Rivers northeast of the Caspian Sea; and, along rivers elsewhere in Kazakhstan. Exceptional surpluses are also forecast in Russia in an area northwest of Kazakhstan, from the Volga River through the Ural Mountains. Water deficits are expected in Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, western Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan.
Overall much of Mexico will experience drier than normal conditions. However, exceptional deficits in Baja and across the Gulf of California observed for the past three months are forecast to diminish in the months ahead. From August through October deficits will increase in severity in the state of Veracruz in a wide inland arc from the Gulf of Mexico. Deficits are also forecast during this period for eastern Jamaica and in Haiti. Moderate deficits are forecast to emerge in Guatemala and El Salvador.
Water deficits are forecast in southern Turkey, Cyprus, Gaza, West Bank, Israel, Qatar, and United Arab Emirates. Surpluses are expected to persist along the Iraq-Iran border and in a few pockets on Oman’s coast. Both deficits and surpluses are forecast in Jordan, Syria, Iraq, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Yemen. Exceptional deficits will emerge in May in Qatar and United Arab Emirates, persisting with varying extent and severity through October.
Water deficits are forecast to linger for the next six months across parts of northern Australia – particularly Arnhem Land and along the Gulf of Carpentaria – and also from Perth southward; in Tasmania; on North Island, New Zealand; and in New Caledonia. A transition from moderate deficits to moderate surpluses in the Darling and Murray Rivers and their tributaries is forecast from August on.
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