The forecast indicates that extreme to exceptional surpluses in northern Australia will diminish, though will still remain present in some regions of Northern Territory. Exceptional deficits across the continent will similarly dissipate, though severe deficits are expected along the southern coast of Victoria.
The forecast indicates that exceptional deficits will persist in northwestern China, southwestern Mongolia, and in the Yangtze River Basin. Surpluses of severe to exceptional intensity are expected to appear in western, southern, and northeastern regions of China.
The forecast indicates that extreme to exceptional surpluses will persist throughout India and Nepal. Exceptional deficits will expand throughout regions of Afghanistan and Pakistan.
The forecast indicates that exceptional deficits will occur in southwestern states, as well as in some areas of the Midwest. Severe to exceptional surpluses will linger in southern regions of Florida and in much of the noncontiguous U.S.
The June Outlook indicates much warmer than normal temperatures (40+ years return period) blanketing a large block of Northeast China and stretching across the border well into Russia. Much of Europe is forecast to be warmer than normal, as well as many parts of Indonesia, while much cooler temperatures will prevail in parts of Central Africa. Conditions are expected to be much wetter than normal for several African nations along the Atlantic near the equator.
Exceptional water deficits are forecast to shrink considerably through June, but deficits will increase overall as Turkey transitions from surplus to deficit and severe deficits emerge in Yemen and western Oman. Exceptional deficits will persist in southeastern Turkey, southern Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, northern Saudi Arabia, and along the Persian Gulf in Iran. Intense deficits will emerge in Gaza, Israel, West Bank, and Lebanon. In Iran deficits will downgrade but remain widespread. After June, deficits in Lebanon and West Bank will upgrade to exceptional.
Exceptional water deficits are forecast to shrink, though deficits in the region will increase overall, emerging in Turkey, Yemen, and Oman. Exceptional deficits are expected in southern Iraq. Deficits will remain widespread in the bulk of Iran east of Tehran, with extreme conditions in southern Kerman Province. After May, deficits will emerge in eastern Turkey, joining those in the rest of the country, and moderate deficits will emerge throughout Armenia, Georgia, and Azerbaijan.
Severe to exceptional water deficits are forecast throughout Saudi Arabia from May through July, increasing in extent from the prior three months, and in southern Iraq and west of the Euphrates. Deficits nearly as intense will emerge in United Arab Emirates, Qatar, and Lebanon. Deficits of varying severity are forecast for Turkey, Lebanon, West Bank, Israel, Jordan, Yemen, Oman, and eastern Iran. Surpluses may persist in northeastern Iraq into northwestern Iran. The forecast for August through October shows a distribution pattern similar to May through July.
The overall progression of water anomalies forecast through August 2017 indicates that widespread water deficits will persist throughout the Middle East, first diminishing in severity through February – with a significant reduction in the extent of exceptional deficits – before increasing in both extent and severity thereafter. Extreme deficits are forecast for southern Oman from March through May.
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