The forecast indicates that extreme to exceptional surpluses in northern Australia will diminish, though will still remain present in some regions of Northern Territory. Exceptional deficits across the continent will similarly dissipate, though severe deficits are expected along the southern coast of Victoria.
The forecast indicates that exceptional deficits will persist in northwestern China, southwestern Mongolia, and in the Yangtze River Basin. Surpluses of severe to exceptional intensity are expected to appear in western, southern, and northeastern regions of China.
The forecast indicates that extreme to exceptional surpluses will persist throughout India and Nepal. Exceptional deficits will expand throughout regions of Afghanistan and Pakistan.
The forecast indicates that exceptional deficits will occur in southwestern states, as well as in some areas of the Midwest. Severe to exceptional surpluses will linger in southern regions of Florida and in much of the noncontiguous U.S.
Regions forecast to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period May 2022 through April 2023 include: Europe, northwest Africa, Chile, Mexico, and California & Texas (US). Areas of significant water surplus include: China, India, Pakistan, Russia, Colombia, and North Dakota (US). This Watch List is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model v2 (WSIMv2) 5 August 2022.
Regions forecast to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period December 2021 through November 2022 include: Portugal, Spain, northwest Africa, Chile, and Texas (U.S). Areas of significant water surplus include: eastern Australia, China, India, and Indonesia. This Watch List is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model v2 (WSIMv2) 4 March 2022.
The forecast through March 2020 indicates intense water surpluses in Sonora, Mexico, and intense deficits along Mexico’s Pacific Coast in Michoacán, Guerrero, Oaxaca, and Chiapas. Deficits will persist in Veracruz State, reaching inland, and emerge in the Yucatán. Surpluses are forecast in Central America, Haiti’s western coast, and the central Bahamas.
The forecast through August 2019 indicates that Mexico will transition to nearly normal water conditions in the north with some deficits in Baja and persistent surpluses in northern Coahuila. A small pocket of severe deficit is forecast for northern Puebla State. Moderate deficits are expected in pockets of northern Central America, and surpluses in pockets of the south. Exceptional deficits are forecast for Haiti.
The forecast through June indicates water deficits in Baja, Mexico, coastal Sonora, southern Chihuahua, the Pacific Coast from southern Sinaloa through Chiapas, and the Yucatan Peninsula. Areas of surplus include Coahuila, the southern border of Chihuahua and Sonora, and pockets in the center of the country. Some moderate deficits are expected Central America, Haiti, and Dominican Republic.
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