ISciences Worldwide Water Watch List August 2022

ISCIENCES WORLDWIDE WATER WATCH LIST AUGUST 2022

15 August 2022

This map presents a selection of regions likely to encounter significant water anomalies during the one year period beginning in May 2022 and running through April 2023 using 3 months of observed temperature and precipitation data and 9 months of forecast data.

The synopsis that follows provides highlights of regional water forecasts. Regional details are available in ISciences Global Water Monitor & Forecast Watch List August 15, 2022 (pdf).

United States: The forecast through October indicates a number of regions with water deficits but limited intense anomalies. Areas of deficit include California, Montana, Iowa, eastern Texas, pockets in the Great Lakes States, and many regions on the East Coast. Surpluses are forecast in the Dakotas.

Canada: The forecast through October indicates many areas of intense water deficit including southern Newfoundland, eastern New Brunswick, and large pockets of Nord-du-Québec, eastern Ontario, and northern Manitoba. Surpluses are forecast in British Columbia’s Thompson and Quesnel Watersheds.

Mexico, Central America, and the Caribbean: The forecast through October indicates that water deficits in Mexico will shrink and downgrade, but will be intense in Puebla, Querétaro, San Luis Potosí, and Chihuahua. Surpluses are forecast in northeastern Sonora and many regions of Central America.

South America: The forecast through October indicates widespread water surpluses in Colombia and the northwestern Amazon Basin in Brazil. Deficits are forecast in many areas of Brazil, but the extent of intense deficit will be limited. Other areas of deficit include Chile and the eastern Pampas.

Europe: The forecast through October indicates widespread water deficits though exceptional deficits will shrink considerably. Deficits will be severe from France through Germany, and many pockets in England, Eastern Europe, and the Balkans, and of even greater intensity on many major rivers.

Africa: The forecast through October indicates water deficits in Africa’s northwest and in coastal nations from Sierra Leone around the Gulf of Guinea. Surpluses are expected in the Sahel, Uganda, and from Tanzania through its southern neighbors and eastern South Africa.

Middle East: The forecast through October indicates widespread intense water deficits in Saudi Arabia and in Iraq between the Tigris and Euphrates Rivers and through Kuwait. Moderate deficits are forecast in central Iran. Areas of surplus include Tehran, Yemen, and Turkey northeast of Lake Tuz.

Central Asia and Russia: The forecast through October indicates water deficits from the Gulf of Ob in Russia past the city of Norilsk, in Khakassia, and west of the Sea of Okhotsk. Areas of surplus include the Western Siberian Plain and Transbaikal. Surpluses will persist in Kyrgyzstan.

South Asia: The forecast through October indicates widespread water surpluses in India and Pakistan, exceptional in many regions of Pakistan and in central Rajasthan. Surpluses are forecast in eastern Afghanistan and some deficits in the west and north.

Southeast Asia and the Pacific: The forecast through October indicates widespread water surpluses in eastern Thailand, Cambodia, Laos, Vietnam, Philippines, Borneo, Java, Sulawesi, and Papua, Indonesia. Areas of deficit include central Sumatra and coastal Papua New Guinea.

East Asia: The forecast through October indicates water surpluses of varying intensity in Northeast China, Shandong into Shaanxi, southeast China, and Korea. Deficits will emerge in western Sichuan and from the Yangtze Gorges southwest in pockets to the Vietnamese border.

Australia & New Zealand:  The forecast through October indicates that water surpluses in eastern Australia will increase, particularly in New South Wales. Surpluses are forecast from Wide Bay-Burnett in Queensland to Canberra. Intense deficits are forecast in coastal Victoria and Tasmania.

Subscribe to our monthly Water Watch List

Search blog categories

Search blog tags

Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

For more information contact info@isciences.com.

Copyright 2022 ISCIENCES, L.L.C. Global Water Monitor & Forecast Watch List is the property of ISCIENCES, L.L.C. It is protected by U.S. copyright laws and may not be reproduced in any way without the written permission of ISCIENCES, L.L.C. The user assumes the entire risk related to its use of information on ISCIENCES, L.L.C. Web pages, including information derived from Water Security Indicators Model (WSIM). This information may include forecasts, projections and other predictive statements that represent ISCIENCES, L.L.C.’s assumptions and expectations in light of currently available information and using the highest professional standards. Actual results may differ from those projected. Consequently, no guarantee is presented or implied as to the accuracy of specific forecasts, projections or predictive statements contained herein. ISCIENCES, L.L.C. provides such information "as is," and disclaims any and all warranties, whether express or implied, including (without limitation) any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. In no event will ISCIENCES, L.L.C. be liable to you or to any third party for any direct, indirect, incidental, consequential, special or exemplary damages or lost profit resulting from any use or misuse of this data.