The forecast indicates that extreme to exceptional surpluses in northern Australia will diminish, though will still remain present in some regions of Northern Territory. Exceptional deficits across the continent will similarly dissipate, though severe deficits are expected along the southern coast of Victoria.
The forecast indicates that exceptional deficits will persist in northwestern China, southwestern Mongolia, and in the Yangtze River Basin. Surpluses of severe to exceptional intensity are expected to appear in western, southern, and northeastern regions of China.
The forecast indicates that extreme to exceptional surpluses will persist throughout India and Nepal. Exceptional deficits will expand throughout regions of Afghanistan and Pakistan.
The forecast indicates that exceptional deficits will occur in southwestern states, as well as in some areas of the Midwest. Severe to exceptional surpluses will linger in southern regions of Florida and in much of the noncontiguous U.S.
Moderate water deficits, punctuated by more intense pockets, are expected across a large portion of eastern and southeastern Australia, scattered across the north, and in the southwest. Deficits may be intense in the southwest, and in the east near Adelaide and Melbourne, from Canberra to Sydney, and around Brisbane. Moderate deficits are forecast in New Zealand and intense deficits in New Caledonia.
Regions forecast to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period from March 2018 through February 2019 include: southern Mexico, northern Brazil, North Africa, Europe, Afghanistan, and Southeast China. Areas with a forecast of significant water surplus include: Montana and Idaho (US), Tanzania, Kenya, Uganda, Spain, and Bangladesh. This Watch List is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) run on 7 June 2018.
Mainland Australia is forecast to transition from widespread exceptional water deficit to mild conditions, with more intense deficits in Tasmania. Areas of moderate deficit include eastern South Australia, Victoria, the Murray-Darling Basin, and the east coast to Brisbane. Surpluses will persist in the Kimberley region, WA; shrink along the Victoria River and emerge in Arnhem Land, NT; re-emerge in northern Cape York Peninsula, QLD; and continue to emerge in the Mackenzie River area west of Rockhampton, QLD. Deficits in New Caledonia and New Zealand will moderate.
Exceptional deficits observed in recent months are forecast to nearly disappear, though intense deficits will persist in western Tasmania and the southwestern tip of Western Australia. The near-term forecast includes moderate deficits in South Australia, becoming more intense past the Eyre Peninsula and along Victoria’s coast. Moderate deficits are expected in the eastern Murray-Darling Basin which may be more severe in Riverina, and moderate deficits are forecast for New Zealand. After March, deficits will be mild overall but more severe in Busselton, Tasmania, and New Zealand.
Recent exceptional water deficits in Australia are forecast to diminish considerably overall, but persist in Tasmania and the southwestern tip of Western Australia. In the near-term, deficits are expected in much of South Australia, eastern New South Wales, and along Australia’s southeastern coast where deficits may be intense. Exceptional surpluses are forecast near Bundaberg, Queensland. After January, intense deficits will emerge in southwest Queensland and into New South Wales and South Australia. Primarily moderate deficits are forecast elsewhere in Queensland and in southeastern Australia.
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