Australia & New Zealand
ISciences staff
Australia & New Zealand: Surpluses ...

The forecast indicates that extreme to exceptional surpluses in northern Australia will diminish, though will still remain present in some regions of Northern Territory. Exceptional deficits across the continent will similarly dissipate, though severe deficits are expected along the southern coast of Victoria. 

Australia & New Zealand: Surpluses continues in north-central Australia
East Asia
ISciences staff
East Asia: Deficits continue in NW China, ...

The forecast indicates that exceptional deficits will persist in northwestern China, southwestern Mongolia, and in the Yangtze River Basin. Surpluses of severe to exceptional intensity are expected to appear in western, southern, and northeastern regions of China. 

East Asia: Deficits continue in NW China, Yangtze River Basin
South Asia
ISciences staff
South Asia: Surpluses expand throughout India ...

The forecast indicates that extreme to exceptional surpluses will persist throughout India and Nepal. Exceptional deficits will expand throughout regions of Afghanistan and Pakistan. 

South Asia: Surpluses expand throughout India and Nepal
United States
ISciences staff
United States: Exceptional deficits to emerge ...

The forecast indicates that exceptional deficits will occur in southwestern states, as well as in some areas of the Midwest. Severe to exceptional surpluses will linger in southern regions of Florida and in much of the noncontiguous U.S. 

United States: Exceptional deficits to emerge in SW states
Southeast Asia & Pacific
ISciences staff
Southeast Asia and the Pacific: Surpluses ...

The forecast indicates that severe to exceptional deficits will resolve throughout much of Southeast Asia. Exceptional surpluses are expected to persist in some countries within Mainland Southeast Asia. 

Southeast Asia and the Pacific: Surpluses emerge in Myanmar, Laos, Vietnam

Channel Country

Australia & New Zealand: Deficits persist in Tasmania & Channel Country

Australia & New Zealand: Deficits persist in Tasmania & Channel Country

A transition away from significant water deficit is forecast for mainland Australia. Exceptional deficits will shrink considerably, retreating to Channel Country in central Australia. However, intense deficits are forecast for western Tasmania, coastal Victoria, Darwin, and the southeastern tip of Western Australia. Moderate deficits are forecast for the remainder of New South Wales, much of South Australia, Northern Territory, and much of the northern half of Western Australia. Moderate deficits are forecast for North Island New Zealand, and New Caledonia.

Australia & New Zealand: Intense deficits to persist along the southeast coast & Tasmania

Australia & New Zealand: Intense deficits to persist along the southeast coast & Tasmania

Recent exceptional water deficits in Australia are forecast to diminish considerably overall, but persist in Tasmania and the southwestern tip of Western Australia. In the near-term, deficits are expected in much of South Australia, eastern New South Wales, and along Australia’s southeastern coast where deficits may be intense. Exceptional surpluses are forecast near Bundaberg, Queensland. After January, intense deficits will emerge in southwest Queensland and into New South Wales and South Australia. Primarily moderate deficits are forecast elsewhere in Queensland and in southeastern Australia.

Australia & New Zealand: Water deficits in Queensland & North Island

Australia & New Zealand: Water deficits in Queensland & North Island

From February through April moderate to exceptional deficits are forecast for much of Queensland. Primarily moderate deficits are forecast for New South Wales and southern Victoria. Moderate to severe deficits are expected to persist in North Island, New Zealand. Surpluses in the northern part of Western Australia and into the Victoria River Basin of Northern Territory are expected to diminish in severity. The forecast after April looks less eventful with moderate deficits tracing a path from Northern Territory’s Top End down along the eastern coast through New South Wales.

Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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