Exceptional surpluses will persist in northern regions of Mainland Southeast Asia. Most areas of Maritime Southeast Asia will observe near-normal conditions.
Severe to exceptional surpluses are expected to persist in several regions of India and emerge in Bangladesh. Some South Asian countries will observe isolated pockets of deficit.
Exceptional deficit anomalies will continue in southern regions of the Middle East, as well as in coastal regions of Turkey. Isolated pockets of exceptional deficit will also persist in Iran. Southwestern coastal areas of the Middle East will continue to observe moderate to severe surplus.
Exceptional deficits will remain in areas near Lake Baikal and in much of western Russia. Northern and southeastern Kazakhstan will observe continuing surpluses of varying intensity, as will some Russian areas near the Lena River.
The forecast through September indicates that water deficits will increase in Norway, Sweden, and northern Germany. Intense deficits will persist in Estonia and Latvia and will emerge on the Rhine River in Switzerland. Deficits will moderate in France and northern Italy. Surpluses will persist in the eastern and southern Balkans.
The forecast through July indicates that exceptional water deficits will increase in Finland, the Baltics, Belarus, and Ukraine, and deficits of varying intensity will increase in Eastern Europe, many pockets of Central Europe, Italy, and the northern Balkans. Surpluses will shrink considerably in the U.K.
Water deficits will shrink considerably in Central and Eastern Europe through March, but intense deficits are forecast for Finland, Sweden, Slovenia, Croatia, and Macedonia. Severe deficits will emerge on the Iberian Peninsula and deficits of varying intensity are forecast for Estonia, Latvia, northern Belarus, Italy, pockets of the Balkans, and central European Russia. Areas of surplus include northern European Russia, southern Sweden, pockets of the UK, Switzerland, Austria, Czech Republic, Romania, and scattered pockets of Central and Eastern Europe.
Regions forecast to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period from October 2018 through September 2019 include: Quebec (Canada), Finland, Venezuela, Somalia, South Africa, India, Thailand, Cambodia, and Australia. Areas with a forecast of significant water surplus include: Texas (US), Paraguay, Uruguay, Tanzania, and China. This Watch List is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) run on 1 February 2019.
Intense water deficits will give way to milder conditions after November along with some pockets of moderate surplus. Until then, severe to exceptional deficits are forecast for Germany, particularly in the south and along the Rhine River, as well as in Switzerland, Finland, southeastern Norway, and southern Ireland. Moderate to severe deficits are expected in many other areas including the Baltics, parts of Eastern Europe, Scotland and England, and much of France. Areas of surplus include Hungary and parts of Serbia, Romania, and Bulgaria. Surpluses will be intense in southern Hungary.
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