Europe: Water deficits will persist in the Baltics

22 July 2021

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast through March 2022 indicates exceptional water deficits in Estonia, Latvia, and central Sweden’s Dalälven River Watershed reaching into Norway. Intense deficits are also forecast in Finnish Lapland and deficits of varying intensity in central and southern Norway and Sweden.

Extreme surpluses are forecast from Murmansk, Russia into Arctic Norway, and surpluses in pockets around the Gulf of Bothnia. In Russia, surpluses are expected in the Don and Upper Desna River regions in the south and the Vychegda Lowland in the north. Anomalies will be intense in the Don Basin and the Lowland. Deficits are expected in the Upper Mezen River area of northern Russia and the Sukhona River Watershed.

ISciences_Europe_Composite_Adjusted_202104-202203_12mo_twitter.png

Deficits of varying intensity are forecast in northern Germany, Denmark’s islands, northwestern Poland, Lithuania, Belarus, and pockets of Scotland. Deficits will be exceptional in southern Belgium. Primarily moderate deficits are forecast in pockets of northern France, across southern France into northeastern Spain, and around Seville. A pocket of intense surplus is forecast in Murcia, Spain. Other areas of deficit include northwestern Italy into Switzerland, Bologna, Sicily, Sardinia, western Hungary, eastern Serbia, and western Croatia. Anomalies will be intense surrounding Bologna, Italy.

In Eastern Europe and the Balkans, surpluses are expected throughout Romania, in western Ukraine’s Zhytomyr Oblast, pockets in the Czech Republic, Kosovo, North Macedonia, eastern Bulgaria, and the Pindus Mountains in northern Greece. Surpluses will be exceptional in northern Romania and North Macedonia. Deficits are forecast in the southern reaches of Greece’s Peloponnese Peninsula.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month composites (below) for the same 12-month period show the evolving conditions.

The forecast through September indicates that surpluses in Russia will shrink, persisting in the Don and Desna River Watersheds in the south and the Kola Peninsula and Vychegda Lowland in the north. Deficits will increase from the Middle Volga River through the Sukhona River Watershed and become extreme in the Mezen River region. In Nordic Europe, deficits will increase in Norway and Sweden and persist in Lapland. Surpluses are forecast for Arctic Norway, northern Sweden, and along the Baltic Sea in Finland, while intense deficits persist in Estonia and Latvia. Deficits will increase in northern Germany, reaching into Denmark’s islands, but downgrade in the Harz Mountains, northwestern Poland, and western Belarus. Deficits will emerge on Belarus’ eastern border. Deficits are forecast for central and southern France, northern Italy into Switzerland, central Austria, and the western Balkans. Intense deficits will emerge on the Rhine River in Switzerland, and deficits in Bologna will moderate. Surpluses will emerge in northern France, downgrade in the eastern Balkans, and remain intense in central Greece and from northwestern North Macedonia into Kosovo. Surpluses will nearly disappear in Ireland, shrink in Wales, and persist from the Welsh border through East Anglia. Moderate deficits will emerge in northern England and Scotland, and mild deficits in southern Spain.

ISciences_Europe_Composite_Adjusted_202104-202203_3mo_twitter.png

From October through December, both deficits and surpluses will shrink and downgrade. Surpluses are forecast for Murmansk, Arctic Norway, the Gulf of Bothnia, Vychegda Lowland, Don and Desna Rivers, Zhytomyr Oblast in Ukraine, southeastern Ukraine, and pockets in eastern Romania. Deficits will persist in Lapland, central Sweden, Estonia, Latvia, Russia’s Mezen River region, and southwestern France.

The forecast for the remaining months – January through March 2022 – indicates surpluses in Murmansk, Arctic Norway, from St. Petersburg to Stavropol, southern Norway, southern Finland, and pockets of Switzerland, Czech Republic, Romania, and Bulgaria. Deficits are forecast in Lapland and Sweden’s Upper Dalälven River region.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Intense rainfall struck Germany, Belgium and the Netherlands in mid-July wreaking heavy damage in many riverside communities and leaving several hundred people dead with many still missing.

Western Germany received over two months’ of rain in just two days causing flooding and destruction that claimed at least 170 lives. The unprecedented event caused rivers in Germany to burst their banks. Germany’s Ahrweiler region was hard-hit with 117 deaths reported. Well over 100 people remain unaccounted for and thousands were left without electricity, drinking water, and gas. Hundreds of kilometers of riverside train tracks were destroyed and many medical facilities. Flood relief aid of $470 million has been approved by the German government.

In Belgium, 31 people died, pushing the European disaster’s total to over 200. The Meuse River overflowed in Liège, the nation’s third largest city, leaving 21,000 without power.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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