Blog — ISCIENCES

Australia: Water deficits to persist in Melbourne, Tasmania, Perth; North may transition to surplus

The forecast through July 2016 indicates a predominance of water surpluses in the north and along central rivers. However, exceptional drought may persist in southern Victoria, southern South Australia, Tasmania, and from Perth southward. Moderate drought may persist in North Island, New Zealand.

China, Mongolia, & the Korean Peninsula: Water surpluses in Southeast China, deficits in Northern China

Widespread water deficits may persist in North China including the North China Plain and Mongolia, with some areas experiencing both deficits and surpluses. Widespread surpluses are forecast for Southeast China, which may be of exceptional severity in Fujian, along the Pearl River (Zhujiang), and at the conjoined borders of Guizhou, Hunan, and Guangxi. Surpluses may also persist in North Korea.

Southeast Asia & the Pacific: Water deficits to persist in Southeast Asia, Borneo, New Guinea

Many parts of Southeast Asia and the Pacific may continue to experience moderate to exceptional water deficits in the coming months. Deficits may be most persistent and severe in Southeast Asia, eastern Borneo, the Philippines, and the island of New Guinea.

South Asia: Water surpluses to persist in Nepal, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, deficits in India

While water surpluses may persist in northeastern Afghanistan, Nepal, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka, the remainder of South Asia is expected to experience water deficits. Of particular interest are the widespread and exceptional water deficits forecast for much of India November 2015 through January 2016.

Middle East: Widespread water deficits predicted across the Arabian Peninsula and Iran

The forecast indicates a predominance of moderate to exceptional water deficits across much of the Middle East through July 2016. Though exceptional deficits on the Arabian Peninsula, in southern Iraq, and in southern Iran are expected to diminish in severity over the next several months, they may regain strength and spread throughout much of the Middle East thereafter. In Turkey, deficits in the west may persist, while surpluses in the east  may eventually transition to deficits.

Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

For more information contact info@isciences.com.

Copyright 2022 ISCIENCES, L.L.C. Global Water Monitor & Forecast Watch List is the property of ISCIENCES, L.L.C. It is protected by U.S. copyright laws and may not be reproduced in any way without the written permission of ISCIENCES, L.L.C. The user assumes the entire risk related to its use of information on ISCIENCES, L.L.C. Web pages, including information derived from Water Security Indicators Model (WSIM). This information may include forecasts, projections and other predictive statements that represent ISCIENCES, L.L.C.’s assumptions and expectations in light of currently available information and using the highest professional standards. Actual results may differ from those projected. Consequently, no guarantee is presented or implied as to the accuracy of specific forecasts, projections or predictive statements contained herein. ISCIENCES, L.L.C. provides such information "as is," and disclaims any and all warranties, whether express or implied, including (without limitation) any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. In no event will ISCIENCES, L.L.C. be liable to you or to any third party for any direct, indirect, incidental, consequential, special or exemplary damages or lost profit resulting from any use or misuse of this data.