Africa: Exceptional water deficits expected in Northwest, Southern and coastal West Africa, exceptional surpluses in Uganda, Kenya and Tanzania

Exceptional water deficits are forecast to dominate Northwest Africa, coastal West Africa and southern Africa through September 2016. Exceptional surpluses are expected in East Africa, particularly in Uganda, Kenya and Tanzania. Surpluses are forecast to emerge in Ethiopia, Sudan, and the Sahel during the latter portion of the forecast period.

The 3-month composites (below) illustrate the evolution of water anomalies in Africa for the same 12-month period. Exceptional deficits in northwest Ethiopia are forecast to persist through May and then transition to surpluses. Exceptional surpluses in northern Tanzania and Uganda are forecast to expand into Kenya and along the Nile in South Sudan from January through March and then persist through the end of the forecast period. Surpluses are also forecast to emerge in southern Mali and Burkina Faso from April through June and then spread eastward through the Sahel into Chad and Sudan from July through September.

(It should be noted that forecast skill declines with longer lead times.)

Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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