In this new series, we examine recent prolonged drought in the Yangtze River Basin, its impact on the affected regions, and the historical accuracy of the Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) forecasts in East Asia.
Exceptional deficits will spread throughout the Russian Plain, northern coastal Russia, and regions near Lake Baikal. Surpluses are expected in some portions of northern Russia and north-central Kazakhstan.
Severe to exceptional deficits will occur throughout most of eastern Europe. Severe to exceptional surpluses in western Europe are expected to dissipate.
The forecast through February 2022 indicates that widespread water deficits will emerge in Russia from Trans-Volga though Tyumen Oblast and into Kazakhstan. Deficits will increase in the Central Siberian Plateau, Altai Republic, and Irkutsk Oblast.
The forecast through February 2022 indicates widespread, extreme to exceptional water surpluses from Northeast China through the North China Plain and much of the vast Yellow River Basin, as well as in the northern Yangtze Basin and North Korea. Deficits in Southeast China will shrink.
The forecast through February 2022 indicates intense water deficits in Turkey between the upper Kizilirmak and Firat (Euphrates) Rivers, and moderate deficits in Riyadh Province, Saudi Arabia. Areas of surplus include central Syria into Jordan and along Iran’s Caspian Coast.
The forecast through February 2022 indicates intense water deficits in southeastern Nigeria, Cameroon, and southeastern Ethiopia into Somalia. Intense surpluses will dominate from Kano State in Nigeria into Zinder, Niger, and in southeastern Sudan. Deficits will increase in Madagascar.
The forecast through February 2022 indicates intense water deficits in Portugal and southwestern Spain. Deficits elsewhere include Estonia, western Ukraine, Nouvelle-Aquitaine in France, and Tuscany, Italy. Areas of surplus include the northern U.K. and Norrbotten, Sweden.