Middle East: Water deficits forecast in central Turkey

21 December 2021

THE BIG PICTURE
The forecast for the 12-month period ending August 2022 indicates water deficits of varying intensity in many regions, particularly widespread on the Arabian Peninsula.

Severe to exceptional deficits are predicted throughout much of Saudi Arabia along with transitional conditions. United Arab Emirates, Qatar, and Bahrain will see exceptional deficits. Mixed conditions are forecast in Yemen including intense deficits near the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, surpluses northeast of Sanaa, and transitional conditions spanning the central Saudi border.

Deficits are forecast in Cyprus and the Levant though surpluses and transitional conditions (pink/purple) are expected in northern Syria. In Iraq, deficits will be widespread west of the Euphrates River and in the south reaching exceptional intensity while near-normal conditions are forecast in the northeast.

Turkey can expect deficits across its southern extent, exceptional around Lakes Egirdir and Beysehir, the upper region of the Ceyhan River, and a pocket southwest of Lake Van.

In Iran, intense deficits are expected along the Persian Gulf and near the Strait of Hormuz, moderate to severe deficits in Fars Province, and moderate deficits in the center of the country, the northeast, and far northwest. Surpluses are forecast along the Caspian Coast.

In Georgia, intense deficits are expected on the coast including Batumi, and a pocket north of the Kura (Mtkvari) River. Surpluses are forecast along nation’s eastern border.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in greater detail.

The forecast through February 2022 indicates near-normal water conditions in western Turkey and much of Iran. However, pockets of intense deficit are expected in central Turkey between the region of the upper Kizilirmak River and the Firat River (Euphrates), and a few small pockets of surplus will linger in the northeast. In Georgia, exceptional deficits will persist on the coast and in a pocket north of the Kura River, but surpluses are forecast in eastern Georgia. Intense surpluses will re-emerge in central Syria, downgrading as the reach south into Jordan, but deficits are forecast around Aleppo and in a small pocket east of Damascus. Surpluses will persist in northern Iran near the Caspian Coast. Surpluses will also continue in Yemen north of Sanaa and will re-emerge spanning the Saudi border, but intense deficits will persist in Yemen’s southwest corner. Moderate deficits will emerge in Riyadh Province, Saudi Arabia.

From March through May 2022, deficits will increase and intensify in central and southeastern Saudi Arabia, becoming severe. Moderate to severe deficits will emerge in southern Turkey from Lake Egirdir to the Firat River while anomalies elsewhere in the nation retreat. Deficits in Georgia will moderate and surpluses there will also retreat. Exceptional surpluses will persist in northern Syria, but surpluses near Iran’s Caspian Coast will shrink as will those in Yemen. Some deficits will emerge in northeastern Iran near the central Turkmen border and in the northwest near the border with Azerbaijan

In the final quarter – June through August 2022 – deficits will increase in the region with exceptional anomalies in southeastern Turkey, Riyadh Province, and several regions in Iran.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Torrential rainfall in northern Iraqi Kurdistan triggered flash flooding in mid-December that left 12 people dead near the region’s capital, Erbil. The destructive deluge came during what has otherwise been a record dry year with water levels at Darbandikhan Dam the lowest in 65 years. But December’s incident was preceded by flash flooding in the area less than two months ago.

Elsewhere in the north, Iraqi security forces were deployed in Kirkuk Province to perform rescue operations for residents trapped by floodwaters.

Drought in northwestern Syria has left the Duwaisat Dam Lake in Idlib Governate at the lowest level since it was built nearly thirty years ago. Agriculture in the region depends on the dam for irrigation, but many farmers have been forced to eliminate crops and will have to rely on more expensive trucked water for orchards, vegetables, and livestock.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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