Central Asia & Russia: Water deficits will increase from TransVolga to Tyumen

Central Asia & Russia: Water deficits will increase from TransVolga to Tyumen

22 December 2021

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast through August 2022 indicates generally moderate water deficits in Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and western Tajikistan. In Kazakhstan, deficits are forecast in the south and near the Caspian Sea and will be severe to exceptional in Mangystau.

Northern Kazakhstan can expect intense surpluses in Akmola Region with severe surpluses in the nation’s capital, Nur-Sultan. Surpluses of lesser intensity are forecast in the Kazakh Upland north of Lake Balkhash, the Alataw Mountains, and the Ile River region in the southeast from Kapchagay Reservoir to the Chinese border. Surpluses are also forecast in eastern Kyrgyzstan.

West of the Urals in Russia, moderate to extreme deficits are forecast in the Vyatka River Watershed in Trans-Volga and surpluses in the Vychegda Lowland. East of the central Urals, deficits are forecast in the Tura River region reaching to Tyumen. Widespread surpluses of varying intensity are forecast from the eastern reaches of the Ob River Watershed into the Yenisei River Watershed though intense deficits will span the Gulf of Ob.

Deficits are also expected in the Central Siberian Plateau and will be severe north of the Vilyuy Reservoir and extreme to the east. Exceptional surpluses are forecast in the plateau’s northeast between the Markha and Olenek Rivers. In Irkutsk Oblast north of Lake Baikal, severe to exceptional deficits are forecast. Intense surpluses are expected in a vast area from Lake Baikal through Russian regions bordering China, while intense deficits are forecast west of the Sea of Okhotsk.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month composites (below) for the same 12-month period show the evolving conditions in more detail.

The forecast through February 2022 indicates that widespread deficits will emerge in Russia from Trans-Volga past the southern Ural Mountains though Tyumen Oblast and will include exceptional anomalies. Deficits will reach south across the Kazakh border. Exceptional deficits will persist along the Gulf of Ob and increase in the Central Siberian Plateau. Deficits will also increase in Altai Republic and Irkutsk Oblast and will persist west of the Sea of Otkhosk. Intense surpluses are expected from the eastern reaches of the Ob River Watershed through the lower region of the Yenisei Watershed as well as in a vast area from Lake Baikal through Russian regions bordering Mongolia and China.

In Central Asia, intense deficits are expected spanning Kazakhstan’s northern border in the Ural River Watershed, moderating overall as they reach south into Qaraghandy Region in the center of the country. Surpluses will increase in the Alataw Mountains of the southeast. Mixed conditions are expected in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, and near-normal conditions in much of Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan.

From March through May 2022, much of Central Asia will return to near-normal water conditions with some surpluses in northern and southeastern Kazakhstan and eastern Kyrgyzstan and some moderate deficits in Kazakhstan’s northwest. Deficits in Russia will shrink and downgrade. Widespread moderate to severe surpluses will increase around the Vychegda Lowland in the Northern European Plain and through the vast Ob River Watershed into the Yenisei River region. Surpluses will remain widespread east of Baikal in regions bordering Mongolia and China but will downgrade somewhat.

The forecast for the final months – June through August 2022 – indicates that anomalies in Russia will shrink, deficits will emerge in Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and western Kazakhstan, and surpluses will emerge along the Ile River.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Russia’s projected wheat harvest for the 2021-2022 season is 10 million tonnes less than the 85 million it produced last year, a shortage attributed to dry conditions. Estimates for the overall grain harvest have been lowered to 123 million.

Kyrgyz officials are in a bit of hot water over a decision this summer to allocate additional water from the Toktogul Reservoir to neighbors Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan for agricultural use when the water level at the reservoir was critically low, threatening Kyrgyzstan’s own farmers. The decision came to light recently when Kazakhstan publicly expressed gratitude. Drought took a 34 percent bite out of Kyrgyzstan’s grain harvest this year compared to last.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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