Europe: Water deficits will emerge in Portugal & SW Spain

21 December 2021

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast through August 2022 indicates that Northern Europe can expect exceptional water deficits in central Sweden’s Dalälven River Watershed, moderating as they reach south. Exceptional deficits are also forecast in Estonia with deficits of lesser intensity in Latvia. Surpluses are forecast in Norrbotten region of Sweden and around the Gulf of Bothnia into Finland, and from Arctic Norway through Murmansk, Russia.

Elsewhere in European Russia, surpluses are expected in the Vychegda Lowland in the north and near the Rybinsk Reservoir.

Intense surpluses are forecast for Iceland and Denmark, and pockets of primarily moderate surplus in Ireland west of the Shannon River and the Outer Hebrides, Scottish Highlands, and border region of Scotland and England. Relatively normal water conditions are forecast in much of Central Europe though some small, scattered pockets of surplus are expected including from Reims, France to Brussels, Belgium. East of the Meuse River in Belgium intense deficits are forecast.

Deficits are forecast in western Ukraine, along its Black Sea coast, and in neighboring Moldova. Anomalies will be exceptional in Ukraine’s Zhytomyr Oblast. Deficits will reach through many areas of mainland Italy and will be exceptional in Tuscany and eastern Emilia-Romagna. Moderate deficits are forecast in nations on the Adriatic Sea and in southern Austria, western Hungary, and pockets in Romania and Bulgaria, but anomalies will be more intense near Zagreb, Croatia.

Moderate to severe deficits are forecast for many regions in France’s southern half leading into Spain, and in the French Riviera, Corsica, and a few pockets in northern France. On the Iberian Peninsula, deficits will be widespread in Portugal and southwestern Spain with exceptional deficits from Andalucía, Spain to Lisbon, Portugal. Surpluses are forecast for southern Sardinia, eastern Sicily, and the central Pindus Mountains in Greece.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month composites (below) for the same 12-month period show the evolving conditions.

The forecast through February 2022 indicates persistent deficits in the Dalälven River Watershed and Västerbotten County in Sweden, and Arctic Norway, Estonia, and Latvia. Intense surpluses will persist in Iceland and in Norrbotten, Sweden, while pockets of moderate surplus emerge in southern regions of the Nordic nations as deficits shrink. In European Russia, surpluses will shrink somewhat in Murmansk, intensify in Komi Republic and near Rybinsk Reservoir, and emerge from Lake Lagoda to Bryansk. Deficits will intensify in Kirov Oblast. Surpluses will emerge in Lithuania and into Belarus, will persist in Denmark and small pockets throughout Central Europe, and will emerge in the northern U.K. and Ireland. Intense deficits will emerge in Portugal and southwestern Spain. In France, deficits are forecast in Lower Normandy, Nouvelle-Aquitaine, and the French Riviera, and will be intense near Limoges. Deficits are expected in several regions of Italy including Tuscany and will re-emerge in Ukraine’s Zhytomyr Oblast. Areas with a forecast of surplus include pockets in northern Romania; the area west of Belgrade, Serbia; and Sicily and southern Sardinia.

From March through May 2022, surpluses will increase in the Nordic nations, western European Russia, and Switzerland, and persist in Iceland and the Scottish Highlands. Intense deficits will persist in several regions of Sweden, downgrade somewhat in Estonia and Latvia, and increase in western Ukraine. Moderate to extreme deficits will continue in Portugal and southwestern Spain. Areas of moderate deficit include Moldova, Romania, Serbia, southwestern Poland, Emilia-Romagna, and France.

The forecast for June through August 2022 indicates intense deficits in the Iberian Peninsula and pockets in Ukraine, Estonia, and central Sweden. Moderate deficits are forecast from southern France through the northern Balkans into Romania. Surpluses are forecast in Iceland, Murmansk, and around the Gulf of Bothnia.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Late November rainfall brought flooding to Cantabria and Asturias in northern Spain causing the Saja, Besaya, and Pas Rivers to overflow, flooding nearby towns, floating cars along submerged streets, and blocking many roadways. Nearly 160mm (~6 inches) of rain fell in Panizales, Asturias; hospital patients were evacuated in Arriondas; and a family trapped by floodwaters in Piloña was rescued by helicopter. In Basque Country, the Cadagua River breached its banks, flooding parts of Bilbao and other riverside municipalities.

Heavy rainfall in mid-December produced flooding in Navarre along Spain’s northern border. One death was reported due to a landslide. In the city of Pamplona people were kayaking down the streets and water reached the rooftops in a nearby village.

France, too, experienced flooding in the Pyrenees near Spain, leading to evacuations. In the coastal city of Bayonne, schools and businesses were closed and rail and electricity service disrupted.

Summer flooding that struck Germany, Belgium, and nearby regions in July was Europe’s costliest natural disaster of 2021 with insured losses totaling USD $13 billion and economic losses topping $40 billion.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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