Mexico, Central America, & the Caribbean: Water deficits will increase in north-central Mexico

21 December 2021

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast ending August 2022 indicates widespread water deficits of varying intensity in Mexico’s north-central and northeastern states, and in the Baja Peninsula. Anomalies will be exceptional in eastern Chihuahua, northern Coahuila, northern Nuevo León, and northern Baja.

Deficits are also expected in the northern tip of Veracruz State and along the southern Gulf in Tabasco and into the Yucatán Peninsula.

Surpluses are forecast from southern Sinaloa on the Pacific Coast into neighboring southern Durango and the southern half of land-locked Zacatecas. From there, surpluses will lead southeast through the state of Mexico where anomalies will be extreme, into Morelos and Tlaxcala. Surpluses are also forecast along the Pacific through Colima and coastal Michoacán, as well as in a few small pockets of Oaxaca.

In Central America, surpluses ranging from moderate to severe are forecast in many regions but will be most widespread in Nicaragua leading into Costa Rica. In the Caribbean, surpluses will be intense in Jamaica, Cuba, and the central Bahamas.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

The forecast through February 2022 indicates that deficits will increase in northern Mexico with widespread, exceptional anomalies at the intersection of Chihuahua, Coahuila, and Durango. Areas of deficit in northern Baja will begin to normalize while exceptional deficits emerge in the Peninsula’s southern half. Deficits will follow the Gulf Coast from Tamaulipas through northern Veracruz where anomalies will be intense, picking up again from southern Veracruz into the Yucatán. In the Pacific south, exceptional deficits will emerge in coastal Oaxaca though a pocket of surplus will persist in the north. Surpluses ranging from moderate to extreme will persist in central Mexico forming a path from southern Durango and Zacatecas leading southeast through Guanajuato, Mexico Distrito Federal, and Morelos. Surpluses and transitional conditions (pink/purple) are forecast along the central Pacific Coast.

In Central America, surpluses will be widespread from Honduras into northern Costa Rica, reaching into Guatemala and Costa Rica. Intense surpluses are forecast for western Jamaica, Cuba, and the central Bahamas.

From March through May 2022, deficits across northern Mexico will shrink and downgrade overall though exceptional anomalies are forecast in southern Baja and formerly mild deficits in Sonora will intensify. A few pockets of exceptional deficit will emerge in the Pacific states of Sinaloa and Nayarit. Near-normal conditions are expected in the Gulf states and southern Mexico, though a pocket of exceptional deficit will persist in central Campeche in the Yucatan. A path of surplus is expected to persist from southern Durango through Morelos, and surpluses are forecast in coastal Michoacán and Guerrero on the Pacific and a few pockets in central Oaxaca.

Moderate to extreme surpluses will persist from southeastern Guatemala into northern Costa Rica. Surpluses will also persist in Jamaica, Cuba, and the Bahamas though transitions are forecast.

The forecast for the final three months – June through August 2022 – indicates moderate deficits in pockets of Baja, Chiapas, Guatemala, and El Salvador. Surpluses are forecast in Cuba, primarily in the east, and small moderate pockets in Panama and in western Mexico.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Nearly 40 percent of Mexico remained in drought at the end of November according to the Mexican Drought Monitor.

In Baja, a new wetland is being developed to help alleviate a dry period that has persisted for several decades. Biologists, farmers, and environmentalists have come together to create the Mexicali Valley wetland with the objective of treating and recycling residual water from the city to the area’s 30,000 farmers for irrigation.

In Mexico’s north-central state of Chihuahua, 40 of the region’s 61 aquifers are over-extracted, according to the National Water Commission, meaning that their water storage is non-renewable. Local industry such as mining operations, a brewery, and walnut monoculture are contributing to the area’s water depletion.

In Coahuila, farmers point to the corporate dairy industry as the source of water over-extraction, claiming industry demands have depleted the Churince lagoon, once the largest body of water in the Cuatrociénegas wetland in the Chihuahuan desert.

In Central America and the Caribbean, intense rainfall has triggered flooding in several regions. A late November deluge produced flooding in Cuba’s eastern province of Holguín. The city of Moa, whose name ironically means “water here,” received 137 mm (5.4 inches) in 24 hours, turning roads into rivers. As the Cabaña River threatened to burst its banks and swallow a bridge, authorities evacuated several hundred people from one neighborhood. The flood event was the second in the same month for Moa.

Flooding in Guatemala’s Petén Province damaged 50 homes.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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