Canada: Water surplus will persist in southern BC

20 December 2021

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month outlook for Canada through August 2022 indicates widespread water deficits of varying intensity in many regions in the nation’s eastern half. Deficits will be exceptional in southern Newfoundland, the Miramichi River watershed in east-central New Brunswick, northeastern Quebec including the Manicouagan Reservoir region and reaching into western Labrador, from Gouin Reservoir past Lake Mistassini in Quebec, and the lower Saint-Maurice River region as it empties into the St. Lawrence between Montreal and Quebec City.

Deficits of varying intensity are expected in much of Southern Ontario though a belt of surplus is forecast west of Toronto. Exceptional deficits are expected in a broad column along the border with Quebec reaching James Bay. Deficits will be widespread in Northern Ontario though surpluses will sketch the coastline on Hudson Bay.

In the Prairie Provinces, nearly normal conditions are forecast across the south with some severe deficits in Manitoba’s southeastern corner and intense deficits west of Calgary, Alberta. Exceptional deficits will belt Manitoba north of Lake Winnipeg and are also forecast in the province’s northeast reaching Hudson Bay. Central Saskatchewan can expect deficits, though surpluses are forecast in the northwest quadrant leading west to Fort McMurray, Alberta. Deficits of varying intensity are expected in the Middle and Upper Athabasca River regions in Alberta and in the northwest.

Surpluses are forecast across much of southern British Columbia (BC), and intense deficits in the upper Fraser River Watershed and much of BC’s far north, reaching well into the Yukon and the Northwest Territories.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

The forecast through February 2022 indicates that deficits will shrink somewhat, notably in southern regions of the Prairie Provinces, but vast areas of deficit will persist nationwide. In the major metropolitan areas of the east, deficits are expected from Montreal to Québec City, and surpluses in a belt from Toronto to Lake Huron. Elsewhere in the east, areas of exceptional deficit include southern Newfoundland, east-central New Brunswick, and vast areas in Quebec. Intense surpluses will increase in far eastern Labrador and Quebec, and moderate surpluses in the Gaspé Peninsula. In Southern Ontario, deficits will remain intense between Georgian Bay and Ottawa, but extreme surpluses are forecast in a belt west of Toronto. Widespread deficits will persist in Northern Ontario, downgrading in some areas.

In the Prairie Provinces, deficits will shrink in the south, returning some areas to normalcy. Intense deficits will persist in the central regions of the Prairies, re-emerging in the Churchill River Watershed of Manitoba, and persist in northeastern Manitoba and northwestern Alberta. Surpluses will shrink in northwestern Manitoba but persist in northwestern Saskatchewan. In British Columbia, surpluses will persist in large pockets of the south, deficits in the upper Fraser River Watershed and the far north.

From March through May 2022, near-normal conditions are forecast in southern regions of the Prairie Provinces. Large pockets of deficit will persist in Quebec, Ontario, and northern Manitoba; surpluses will shrink in the nation’s far east and will moderate west of Toronto. Deficits in the Canadian West will shrink somewhat, and moderate surpluses are forecast in southern BC.

The forecast for the final months – June through August 2022 – indicates that deficits will downgrade but remain widespread in Quebec, Ontario, and Manitoba, and shrink from Saskatchewan west. Surpluses will persist in northwestern Saskatchewan and pockets of southern BC.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
The death toll has risen to five in British Columbia after a mudslide following torrential rainfall in mid-November swept cars off Highway 99 near Pemberton.

In addition to the human deaths, nearly 700,000 animals perished in the province’s widespread November flooding - 420 dairy cows, 12,000 pigs, and 628,000 poultry. It is also estimated that around 3 million bees died when 110 beehives were destroyed.

The Trans Mountain Pipeline, a conduit for 300,000 barrels of crude oil per day, resumed service on 5 December after flooding forced a three-week shutdown, the longest in its 70-year existence. Refined fuel was being barged in from the U.S. to meet needs as floodwaters severed many of the province’s main transportation routes via roadway and rails.

This year’s flood event in British Columbia could end up being the most costly natural disaster in Canadian history, according to one economist.

In the Prairie Provinces, drought-stricken Saskatchewan’s projected revenue increase of $2.4 billion is being dragged into the red by drought relief and crop insurance costs, with the 2021 estimate now at a deficit of $2.7 billion.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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