In this new series, we examine recent prolonged drought in the Yangtze River Basin, its impact on the affected regions, and the historical accuracy of the Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) forecasts in East Asia.
Exceptional deficits will spread throughout the Russian Plain, northern coastal Russia, and regions near Lake Baikal. Surpluses are expected in some portions of northern Russia and north-central Kazakhstan.
Severe to exceptional deficits will occur throughout most of eastern Europe. Severe to exceptional surpluses in western Europe are expected to dissipate.
The forecast through February 2023 indicates vast areas of intense surplus in Russia's Yenisei River system. Surpluses are also expected in Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan.
The forecast through February 2023 indicates widespread, intense water deficits in China from the Yangtze Gorges through Guizhou, and in southern Taiwan. Deficits are also forecast in South Korea and southern Japan.
Surpluses of varying intensity are forecast throughout much of Southeast Asia and many areas in the Pacific. Anomalies will be especially intense in Thailand, Cambodia, and Myanmar, though deficits will emerge in northern Myanmar.
Severe water deficits are forecast in Riyadh Province, Saudi Arabia through February 2023. Deficits of varying intensity are expected in western Turkey through February or longer.