Extreme to exceptional surplus is forecast in:
Eastern Russia, throughout eastern Maga Buryatdan, northern and southwestern Kamchatka, and southern Chukchi Autonomous Okrug.
Central Russia, primarily within central to western Chukot, southern Evenk, and northern Irkutsk.
Northern Russia, along the coast of the Taymyr Gulf.
Far Eastern Russia, along the Amur River, throughout central Khabarovsk, and in coastal regions near the Sea of Okhotsk.
Zabaykalsky Krai in Eastern Siberian Russia.
Pockets in Northern Kazakhstan.
Kyrgyzstan, in Issuk-Kul and Batken Regions.
Central Tajikistan.
Exceptional deficits are expected in:
Spanning the central border shared by Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan.
Southwest Kazakhstan, specifically central Mangystau.
Khanty-Mansiy in West Siberian Russia.
Northeastern Russia, in coastal regions in northeastern Chukchi Autonomous Okrug.
Moderate to severe deficits are anticipated in:
Much of Turkmenistan.
Yamal-Nenets, Russia near the Gulf of Ob.
Southeastern Russia, in southern Chukot and northern Khabarovsk.
FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.
The forecast through February 2023 predicts widespread exceptional surpluses in much of Russia’s Yenisei River Watershed, in central and western Chukot, and in Kamchatka and nearby regions of the Russian Far East. Intense surpluses will persist from central Tajikistan into the Fergana Valley and will emerge on the Amu Darya River. Moderate surpluses will increase in southern and western Kazakhstan and many pockets in Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan. Exceptional deficits will increase in Sverdlovsk Oblast east of the Ural Mountains in Russia, and spanning the central Gulf of Ob.
From March through May 2023, much of the Central Siberian Plateau and Western Siberian Plain can expect surpluses of varying intensity. Central Chukot and northwestern coastal regions of the Taymyrsky Dolgano-Nenetsky District can expect surpluses as well. Areas with a forecast of deficit include regions near the southern half of Lake Baikal and southern Chukot in the Aldan River Watershed.
The forecast for the final months – June through August 2023 – predicts deficits in Russia from the northern Urals through the Western Siberian Plain, with exceptional deficits in the southern Yamal Peninsula and around the city of Surgut. Deficits of varying intensity will emerge in Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and western Kazakhstan. Extreme surpluses are forecast in Taymyrsky Dolgano-Nenetsky District, and in southeastern Evenk and central Chukot.
Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.
IMPACTS
On December 2, government officials of states throughout Central Asia met in Uzbekistan to discuss adoption of climate change and resilience measures. Each state of Central Asia faces severe problems catalyzed by climate change. Recently in Kyrgyzstan, it was reported that only 123 villages have access to drinking water since 2020, with 300 villages left without, a problem worsened by previously existing complications from lingering drought. Additionally, glacial loss in Kyrgyzstan is approximately 16 percent, which, along with recent water surpluses, exacerbate dangerous consequences such as flooding, mudslides, and avalanches, seen recently in July of this year within the Tian Shan Mountains.
Glaciers are also disappearing in Tajikistan. Tajikistani scientists note this as a result of a 15 percent increase in temperature within the last 70 years. Tajikistan has over 8,000 glaciers and is noted as the region with the highest number of glaciers in Central Asia. As these glaciers hold several hundred cubic kilometers of water, these glaciers supply fresh water in the summer and feed large river systems. These river systems include the Amu Darya and Zeravshan, which also supply water to Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, and Tajikistan, meaning that Tajikistan is a major source of water for much of Central Asia.
NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.
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