Global Precipitation & Temperature Outlook January 2023

6 January 2023

OVERVIEW

Our January 2023 Global Precipitation and Temperature Outlook indicates that several regions of the world will experience significantly warmer temperatures than normal, including Myanmar, eastern Indonesia, and eastern China. Other areas affected with widespread warm anomalies include northeastern North America, Central America, and much of Continental Europe. Precipitation surpluses are expected for several countries, including Kazakhstan, northeastern Saudi Arabia, northwestern Brazil, and the Guianas.

TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK

In Southeast Asia, exceptionally warmer anomalies are expected throughout Myanmar and throughout many islands of Indonesia. The most intense anomalies are expected in eastern Borneo, Sulawesi, and northern New Guinea. Other areas anticipated to experience moderate to severe warm anomalies include Malaysia, Singapore, the island of Sumatra, Papua New Guinea, and southern islands of the Philippines.

In East Asia, warmer than average temperatures are expected to be widespread throughout eastern China. These anomalies begin near Shanghai and reach further inland into the lower and middle basins of the Yangtze River. Severe to extreme warm anomalies are anticipated throughout the majority of the rest of China’s eastern regions. In northeast China, areas along the Songhua River and the shared border with Russia can expect severe to exceptionally warmer temperatures. The forecast for Mongolia, North Korea, South Korea, and Japan indicate mostly moderate anomalies throughout.

In South Asia, far northeastern areas of India can anticipate exceptionally warm anomalies, specifically the states of Meghalaya and Mizoram. Anomalies of lesser intensity, mostly moderate, are indicated for much of central to southern India, which spread west into northeastern Pakistan. Small areas in eastern Afghanistan can expect moderate to severe warm anomalies, mainly regions in and near the province of Paktika.

Much of the forecast for Central Asia predicts widespread warm anomalies, mostly mild to moderate, with Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, and eastern Kazakhstan expected to observe moderate anomalies. In Russia, much of Asian Russia can expect moderate to severe warm anomalies, with the most intense instances occurring near the city of Irkutsk. Warm anomalies of similar intensity are expected to occur in southern regions of the Russian Far East, near the federal subjects of Yevrey and southern Amur.

Widespread extreme to severe warm anomalies are expected throughout much of Continental Europe, the most intense of which will occur in northern Poland, Belarus, and the Baltics. Extreme anomalies are predicted to occur in the southern half and eastern parts of France, across Germany, and further inland into western Ukraine, northern Romania, Slovakia, Austria, and the Czech Republic. Northern Italy and Switzerland can expect anomalies of similar intensity. Southern coastal regions in the United Kingdom can expect severely warmer temperatures than normal, with Ireland and central to northern regions of the United Kingdom expecting moderate anomalies. Similar conditions of moderate warm anomalies are expected to occur throughout much of Finland, as well as central Sweden and Norway, with severe conditions in the latter countries’ southern coastal regions.

Several countries in the Middle East can expect small pockets of exceptionally warmer conditions, including areas in southern Iran near the city of Polan, and areas in Saudi Arabia near the city of Zalim and across the region of Rub’ al Khali, near the shared border of the United Arab Emirates. Western and southeastern Yemen is also expected to experience similar exceptional anomalies. Further north, eastern Turkey can anticipate warm anomalies, mostly moderate, which lessen in intensity moving east into Armenia and Azerbaijan.

The forecast for Africa indicates mostly warmer conditions for much of the continent, spreading from western Mauritania to the majority of Mali, along with Western Sahara and coastal regions of northern Morocco. Predictions of exceptionally warm anomalies are indicated for coastal regions of northwestern Senegal, with conditions to decrease in intensity into moderate to severe anomalies further inland. These conditions can be expected in Guinea, southern areas of the Ivory Coast, northwestern Nigeria, western Gabon, and northern Benin. Nearby, pockets of exceptional anomalies are anticipated to occur in central Cameroon, and along its shared border with southeastern Nigeria. Intense warm anomalies in the Horn of Africa are expected to persist, with exceptional conditions occurring in eastern Ethiopia. Conditions of similar intensity can be expected in southern coastal regions of South Africa, east of Lesotho.

In central Africa, small pockets of cooler anomalies are expected in the northern Kinshasa region of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), eastern-central South Sudan, and in much of Kenya. Southern countries such as Namibia, western Zambia, and western-central Mozambique can expect mildly cooler conditions.

The forecast for the United States anticipates widespread warm anomalies of varying intensity, with northern states experiencing the most intense. These states include Maine, Vermont, Massachusetts, and eastern New York. Further west, states within the Upper Midwest, including Michigan and Wisconsin, can anticipate similarly intense conditions. The Great Plains can expect severe warm temperatures, with the majority of the rest of the country experiencing moderate conditions. Some exceptions include pockets of severely warmer conditions include northern Texas, the Oklahoma Panhandle, and central Utah. Outside of the continental U.S., Hawaii's forecast indicates extreme to exceptional warm anomalies throughout its islands, and Alaska anticipating mostly mild to moderate anomalies. Much of the moderate conditions in Alaska will occur near Kobuk and Porcupine and expand south throughout the state.

Canada is expected to experience widespread warmer conditions similar to the U.S. The most intense concentrations are expected to occur in southwestern Quebec, spreading along its shared border with the United States and north into southeastern Ontario. The majority of central to western Ontario can expect severe warmer anomalies, spreading far into central Manitoba. The remaining regions, Saskatchewan, Alberta, Northwest Territories, and Yukon, are all expected to experience widespread moderate warm anomalies.

Mexico is expected to observe varying degrees of warm anomalies, most notably in central Baja California Sur, its eastern regions including Chihuahua and Cahuila, and areas nearby the city of Coatzacoalcos. These conditions spread further south into areas of northern Central America, including Guatemala, Belize, Honduras, and El Salvador. Islands in the Caribbean will experience similar conditions, specifically Cuba, Haiti, Jamaica, and the U.S. Virgin Islands.

The forecast for South America indicates that southeast Brazil can expect concentrations of extreme warm anomalies, with moderate conditions to remain in the country’s central to eastern regions. Further north, the Guianas are expected to observe mostly mild to moderate warm anomalies, with northern Venezuela forecast to experience moderate to severely cooler conditions. Pockets of moderate to severe warm anomalies are expected to occur throughout northern to south-central Peru, southwestern Bolivia, Uruguay, and along the southeastern coastal regions of Argentina.

Australia is expected to observe mostly normal conditions to mild anomalies, with moderately warm conditions in southeastern areas of the Northern Territory. Southern coastal regions in Western Australia along the Great Australian Bight can expect moderate to severely cooler conditions. Western to central Tasmania, as well as western to central New Zealand can expect severe to extreme warm anomalies.

PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK

The forecast for South America indicates surpluses of varying intensity occurring in much of the continent’s northern countries, most notably in southern Venezuela, southwest to central Columbia, eastern Ecuador, central Peru, and the Guianas, with the exception of French Guiana expected to experience normal conditions. Northwestern Brazil can expect surpluses of similar intensity which continue south, in pockets, throughout northeastern Bolivia and Paraguay. Nearby areas across and to the east of Paraguay’s shared border of Brazil can expect similar anomalies, as well as isolated areas in central Argentina. Much of southwestern Colombia, southern Ecuador, and western coastal areas of Peru are expected to experience exceptional deficits. Deficits, mostly moderate, are expected to occur in northwestern and the southernmost areas of Argentina.

In Central Asia and Russia, most regions can expect normal conditions with mild precipitation anomalies, with the exception of intense surpluses occurring throughout much of Kazakhstan. Central to eastern Kazakhstan, particularly areas around Lake Balkhash and reaching northeast to regions near Zaysan Lake, can expect severe to extreme precipitation surpluses.

The Middle East can expect mostly normal to mild conditions of surplus, with the exception of severe to exceptional areas of surplus occurring in the northern regions of the Riyadh Province. These surpluses lessen in intensity, becoming mild to moderate, and spread down into northwestern and northeastern areas in Yemen. Few moderate deficits can be expected, including coastal areas of Saudi Arabia, north of Medina, northern Iraq, and pockets throughout Turkey.

Much of Africa can anticipate normal conditions to mild anomalies, notably mild deficits throughout Mali and southern to eastern regions of Tanzania, as well as mild to moderate wetter than average conditions in southeastern Angola, much of Zambia, and areas near Mozambique’s capital, Tete. Extreme to exceptional wetter conditions are expected to occur within the Horn of Africa, specifically in western and eastern Ethiopia, southern Kenya, and coastal regions of northeastern Somalia.

Australia is expected to observe exceptionally wetter than normal conditions in coastal areas within the region of Western Australia, along the Eighty Mile Beach. These surpluses move further inland into the Western Plateau and the Great Victoria Desert, but lessen in intensity to moderate surplus. New Zealand is expected to experience mostly normal conditions to mild precipitation surpluses.

The forecast for Southeast Asia and the Pacific indicates precipitation anomalies of varying intensity throughout the area, with severe to extreme surpluses occurring throughout central Vietnam, much of the Philippines, and northwestern regions of the island of Sumatra in Indonesia. The Indonesian islands of Java, Sulawesi, and Borneo are expected to experience conditions moderate to severely drier than normal.

Several regions of the United States can anticipate moderate to severe surpluses, most notably in western states, such as Utah, Nevada, and California. Several southeastern states can expect mild to moderate surpluses, including Arkansas and Alabama, as well as the northeastern states of Vermont, and northeastern New York.

South Asia can expect widespread mild to moderate precipitation deficits, most concentrated in southern and eastern India. These anomalies continue throughout southern Nepal, north-central Bangladesh, and far east territories of India, mostly areas along the Brahmaputra River.

Large concentrations of exceptional deficits are expected in East Asia, specifically in regions along the western regions of the Pearl River Basin in China. Western areas of Japan, particularly Kyushu, Honshu, and Sikoku, can expect deficits of similar intensity. Western areas of the Sichuan region of China can expect small pockets of similarly intense deficits, while the Fujian region, and the majority of Taiwan, can expect deficits of lesser intensity, mostly moderate.

Mexico is expected to observe widespread mild to moderate precipitation deficits, including the states of Chihuahua, Durango, Sinaloa, and Veracruz. Some areas in Central America can expect moderately wetter than average precipitation, including southern Guatemala, El Salvador, and Costa Rica into Panama.

The majority of Continental Europe is expected to experience widespread moderate precipitation deficits, with the most intense anomalies occurring in central Italy, southern Germany, Hungary, Bulgaria, and throughout much of the Balkans.

Canada can expect mostly normal conditions, with moderate deficits occurring throughout Newfoundland and northern coastal regions of Quebec. Further north in Nunavut, northern areas of Baffin Island bordering the Arctic Ocean, Somerset Island, eastern Devon Island, and western Prince of Wales Island are expected to observe intense, exceptionally drier conditions.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

ABOUT THIS BLOG POST
Each week, ISciences processes an ensemble of 28 seasonal temperature and precipitation forecasts issued by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2). We present our results in a proprietary weekly report titled Global Water Monitor and Forecast: Precipitation and Temperature Outlook. This blog post summarizes our Outlook released January 6, 2023 which includes forecasts for January 2023 through September 2023 based on NOAA CFSv2 forecasts issued December 25 through December 31, 2022.

Technical details:

Each CFSv2 forecast is bias corrected by:
- Constructing probability density functions from CFSv2 hindcasts.
- Fitting the hindcast probability distribution functions to a generalized extreme value distribution.
- Using an inverse lookup to an extreme value distribution fitted to the observed temperature and precipitation record (Fan & van den Dool 2008, Chen et al. 2002).
The map colors depict the return period of the median forecast anomaly.
Regions where the interquartile range of the ensemble spans both above normal and below normal conditions are hashed as having uncertain direction.
Regions where the interquartile range of the ensemble divided by the median forecast is large (>0.4) are hashed as having uncertain magnitude.
Results are reported in terms of return period using a 1950-2009 baseline.

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