Middle East: Intense water deficits, transitional conditions throughout

Middle East: Intense water deficits, transitional conditions throughout

29 December 2022

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast ending in August 2023 indicates widespread, intense deficits throughout much of the Middle East with pockets of transitional conditions also expected.

Areas expecting exceptional deficits include:

  • Saudi Arabia, primarily throughout its southeastern region bordering Oman.

  • Western Oman, particularly western regions within Dhofar Governorate.

  • Eastern Yemen, throughout the northern regions of the Al Mahrah Governorate and northeastern Hadhramaut Governorate.

  • Much of the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, and Bahrain.

  • Western Turkey, in its European region and well into western Anatolia.

Moderate to severe deficits are anticipated in:

  • Central Turkey, with concentrations in the provinces of Erzincan and Malatya.

  • Much of central into northeastern Iran.

Deficits and transitional conditions are forecast in:

  • The Levant.

  • Saudi Arabia, transitional areas in Al Hudud ash Shamaliyah, Al Madirah, Al Quassin, Najran, and southwestern Ash Sharqiyah.

  • Western to central Yemen.

  • Iraq west of the Euphrates River and in the south.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

The forecast through February 2023 indicates moderate to extreme deficits in Riyadh Province, Saudi Arabia, and deficits of varying intensity in western Turkey. Moderate deficits are expected in northern Oman, southern Iran, and southeastern Yemen. Northern Yemen can expect areas of moderate to exceptional surplus as can northeastern Turkey. Transitional conditions are forecast in a pocket of south-central Saudi Arabia. Central Syria can expect intense surpluses, while surpluses of lesser intensity are expected in northwestern Iraq, southern Iraq into Saudi Arabia, Iran’s north-central provinces, and small pockets in Jordan.

From March through May 2023, much of the Middle East can expect normal conditions to mild deficits, except for western Turkey and southeastern Saudi Arabia, which are expected to experience moderate to severe deficits. Deficits in Riyadh Province will moderate, and surpluses will persist in central Syria, northwestern Yemen.

The forecast for the final months – June through August 2023 – indicates that widespread deficits will emerge, intense in Saudi Arabia, Syria, and southwestern Iran.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Farming communities in Yemen are facing extreme drought and flooding, severely impacting its agricultural sector. In a recent report, the International Committee of The Red Cross (ICRC) stated that the recent flooding has destroyed farmers’ crops, as well as moved undetonated artillery from nearby areas of conflict to agricultural areas. The ICRC also revealed that approximately 19 million Yemenis, or 63% of the total population, are unable to meet their daily food needs countrywide, compared to 16.2 million last year, or 53% of the total population. The combination of destructive water anomalies and combat have displaced over 3.3 million people, and limited access to safe drinking water for approximately 17.8 million people. The ICRC’s report indicated an increasing number of farmers to leave their profession. 

Tehran, the capital of Iran, is facing potential nationwide water restrictions due to prolonged drought. The city’s water reservoirs are currently at record lows, with ten major dams reporting a decrease in water levels from 25 to 75 percent compared to previous years. Due to the water shortages, almost half of citizens have turned to extracting water from underground. On December 1st, the Etemad Daily reported that “if there is no drastic improvement in the situation, rationing of water would be implemented in some cities.”

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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