Southeast Asia & the Pacific: Widespread surpluses to persist

Southeast Asia & the Pacific: Widespread surpluses to persist

29 December 2022

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast ending in August 2023 indicates surpluses of varying intensity throughout much of Southeast Asia and the Pacific.

Areas that can expect exceptional surplus include:

  • Eastern Thailand, into northern Cambodia.

  • Southeastern Myanmar and pockets in Peninsular Myanmar.

  • Vietnam’s North Central Coast region.

Severe to extreme surplus are expected in:

  • Western and central Indonesia, in Sumatra, Peninsular Malaysia, southwest Kalimantan, eastern Java, Flores Island, and northern Sulawesi.

Moderate to severe surpluses are forecast in:

  • Singapore, with moderate surplus throughout much of the region.

  • Northern and central regions of Philippines.

Mild to moderate deficits:

  • Northwestern Papua New Guinea along the coast and pockets in northeastern Papua Indonesia.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

The forecast through February 2023 indicates that surpluses in Indonesia and Malaysia will shrink and downgrade overall but anomalies will remain widespread in Sumatra. The Philippines and Singapore can expect moderate surpluses. In Southeast Asia, widespread surpluses will persist in Peninsular Myanmar, Thailand, Cambodia, Laos, and Vietnam. Areas within eastern Cambodia and Vietnam can expect exceptional surpluses. In mainland Myanmar, extreme surpluses are forecast in western and eastern coastal areas, while the remainder of the nation can expect intense transitional conditions and deficits. In northern New Guinea, severe deficits are forecast.

From March through May 2023, near-normal conditions will return to much of Indonesia and Pacific regions, with surpluses persisting in northern Sulawesi, far north Sumatra, and the central Philippines. Though shrinking and downgrading in Southeast Asia, surpluses are forecast in Vietnam, northern and eastern Cambodia, central Thailand, and southwestern and southeastern Myanmar.

The forecast for the final months – June through August 2023 – indicates an emergence of generally mild deficits throughout Indonesia, southern Philippines, Malaysia, and western Myanmar. Moderate surpluses will linger in pockets from Peninsular Malaysia into Thailand, and a pocket of central Vietnam while transitional conditions are expected in Vietnam’s South Central Coast region.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
On Christmas Day, officials in the Philippines evacuated approximately 46,000 citizens from their homes due to flooding from a week of intense rainfall in the region’s southern and eastern areas. The cities of Ozamiz and Oroquieta were flooded, as well as nearby rural villages and highways. Eleven deaths were reported with nineteen other individuals missing. Governor for the province of Misamis Occidental, Henry Oaminal, reported the event as “the worst rainfall and water flow levels we have ever had,” citing water levels “above the chest” in some areas. In nearby southern towns of Jimenez and Tudela, seven deaths were reported, mostly from drowning.

Areas in Malaysia experienced similar dangers from flooding, reporting five deaths and over 70,000 residents evacuated on December 21st. The flooding was exacerbated by typhoons damaging the country, with reports of water levels reaching over ten feet in the Kuala Krai district in Kelantan. Over 31,000 Malaysians abandoned their homes in the state of Kelantan, with over 39,000 residing in temporary shelters in Terengganu. The states of Pahang, Johor, and Perak were also evacuated due to similar water-related crises.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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