Blog — ISCIENCES

Central Asia & Russia: Water surpluses forecast in Kazakhstan and Central Russia, deficits in Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan

Exceptional water surpluses are forecast along rivers in Kazakhstan and central Russia from the Volga River through the Ural Mountains to the western edge of the Central Siberian Plateau. Water deficits are expected in Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan through November, with greatest severity in March.

Australia: Water deficits forecast to persist across the north, Victoria, Tasmania

The forecast indicates the presence of persistent water deficits across the north and in Victoria, Tasmania, and North Island, New Zealand. A transition from moderate deficits to moderate surpluses in the Murray-Darling Basin is forecast in September, as are surpluses farther north along rivers in central Queensland.

East Asia: Water surpluses in southeast China forecast to continue, transitioning to moderate deficits later in the year

Moderate to exceptional water surpluses are forecast to persist in southeast China, then transition to moderate deficits in Guangxi, Guangdong, and Guizhou in the later months. Moderate deficits are forecast for northeast China, and both deficits and surpluses are forecast in western regions including the Tibetan Plateau. Surpluses are forecast on the Yellow River in May.

Southeast Asia & the Pacific: Water deficits to persist in Thailand, Cambodia, Vietnam, Papua New Guinea; surpluses on Java

Exceptional water deficits will continue to affect many parts of Southeast Asia and the Pacific through November 2016. March through May is forecast to be especially dry in Thailand, Laos, Cambodia, the Malay Peninsula, and Mindanao. In contrast, severe to exceptional water surpluses are expected on Java which may persist for months.

South Asia: Water deficits to persist in India, transition to moderate surpluses in June

Widespread water deficits are forecast in India through May, with exceptional deficits from Gujarat through Rajasthan, and in India's southern tip. From June through November a transition to moderate surpluses is forecast across central India; deficits are expected in Assam. Flooding is forecast in August along the Gandaki River in Nepal.

Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

For more information contact info@isciences.com.

Copyright 2022 ISCIENCES, L.L.C. Global Water Monitor & Forecast Watch List is the property of ISCIENCES, L.L.C. It is protected by U.S. copyright laws and may not be reproduced in any way without the written permission of ISCIENCES, L.L.C. The user assumes the entire risk related to its use of information on ISCIENCES, L.L.C. Web pages, including information derived from Water Security Indicators Model (WSIM). This information may include forecasts, projections and other predictive statements that represent ISCIENCES, L.L.C.’s assumptions and expectations in light of currently available information and using the highest professional standards. Actual results may differ from those projected. Consequently, no guarantee is presented or implied as to the accuracy of specific forecasts, projections or predictive statements contained herein. ISCIENCES, L.L.C. provides such information "as is," and disclaims any and all warranties, whether express or implied, including (without limitation) any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. In no event will ISCIENCES, L.L.C. be liable to you or to any third party for any direct, indirect, incidental, consequential, special or exemplary damages or lost profit resulting from any use or misuse of this data.