Australia & New Zealand
ISciences staff
Australia & New Zealand: Surpluses ...

The forecast indicates that extreme to exceptional surpluses in northern Australia will diminish, though will still remain present in some regions of Northern Territory. Exceptional deficits across the continent will similarly dissipate, though severe deficits are expected along the southern coast of Victoria. 

Australia & New Zealand: Surpluses continues in north-central Australia
East Asia
ISciences staff
East Asia: Deficits continue in NW China, ...

The forecast indicates that exceptional deficits will persist in northwestern China, southwestern Mongolia, and in the Yangtze River Basin. Surpluses of severe to exceptional intensity are expected to appear in western, southern, and northeastern regions of China. 

East Asia: Deficits continue in NW China, Yangtze River Basin
South Asia
ISciences staff
South Asia: Surpluses expand throughout India ...

The forecast indicates that extreme to exceptional surpluses will persist throughout India and Nepal. Exceptional deficits will expand throughout regions of Afghanistan and Pakistan. 

South Asia: Surpluses expand throughout India and Nepal
United States
ISciences staff
United States: Exceptional deficits to emerge ...

The forecast indicates that exceptional deficits will occur in southwestern states, as well as in some areas of the Midwest. Severe to exceptional surpluses will linger in southern regions of Florida and in much of the noncontiguous U.S. 

United States: Exceptional deficits to emerge in SW states
Southeast Asia & Pacific
ISciences staff
Southeast Asia and the Pacific: Surpluses ...

The forecast indicates that severe to exceptional deficits will resolve throughout much of Southeast Asia. Exceptional surpluses are expected to persist in some countries within Mainland Southeast Asia. 

Southeast Asia and the Pacific: Surpluses emerge in Myanmar, Laos, Vietnam

Tibetan Plateau

East Asia: Water surpluses forecast in Shanghai; deficits eastern Sichuan

East Asia: Water surpluses forecast in Shanghai; deficits eastern Sichuan

Water surpluses are forecast to persist in Southeast China through March but with diminished severity, except in Shanghai and Jiangsu where exceptional surpluses may persist. Deficits will continue to emerge on the Liaodong Peninsula, eastern Sichuan, Shaanxi, Gansu, Ningxia, and eastern Yunnan. Exceptional deficits intermingled with conditions of both deficit and surplus are expected across northern China from central Inner Mongolia west and north into Mongolia. After March Southeast China is forecast to transition to normal conditions and anomalies elsewhere in the country will generally diminish in severity.

Global Precipitation & Temperature Outlook for November 2016

Global Precipitation & Temperature Outlook for November 2016

Most noteworthy in the November 2016 Outlook is the forecast of a vast expanse of exceptionally warmer temperatures for the US Midwest and northward through Canada. Significant warm anomalies are also expected in coastal West Africa, the Gulf of Guinea, Madagascar, India's southern tip, and Southeast Asia. Exceptional dry anomalies are forecast along South America's northern Pacific coast and in southern Ethiopia. Areas forecast to experience wet anomalies include northern Brazil and northern Australia.

East Asia: Water surpluses to persist on Yellow River & lower Yangtze River

East Asia: Water surpluses to persist on Yellow River & lower Yangtze River

Moderate to exceptional water surpluses are forecast to persist in China along the Yellow River and the lower reaches of the Yangtze River through October. Deficits will continue to emerge in Shandong, eastern Yunnan, and western Guangxi. Widespread deficits are forecast for the Korean Peninsula from September on, and deficits will continue to emerge in Southeast and Northeast China. Deficits may recede in Honshu, Japan in October before re-emerging.

East Asia: Water surpluses to persist in Southeast China, deficits in Japan

East Asia: Water surpluses to persist in Southeast China, deficits in Japan

Water surpluses are expected to persist, though diminish in severity, in many provinces of China along the Yangtze River and south in the coming months, and then transition to moderate deficits beginning in November. Severe surpluses are forecast along the Yellow River in June. Deficits are forecast in Hainan June through August. Moderate to severe deficits are forecast in Hokkaido, central Honshu, and Shikoku, Japan from June through August, and deficits may continue to emerge in some areas of Japan through February.

East Asia: Water surpluses persist in SE China, will emerge in Henan & eastward

Widespread moderate to exceptional water surpluses are forecast to persist in southeast China and the Yangtze River. Surpluses are also forecast along the Yellow River beginning in May, which may become extreme in June. A transition to moderate deficits is forecast for southeast China in the later months. Moderate deficits are forecast in Mongolia, and both deficits and surpluses are forecast in western regions of China including the Tibetan Plateau. 

Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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