In this new series, we examine recent prolonged drought in the Yangtze River Basin, its impact on the affected regions, and the historical accuracy of the Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) forecasts in East Asia.
Exceptional deficits will spread throughout the Russian Plain, northern coastal Russia, and regions near Lake Baikal. Surpluses are expected in some portions of northern Russia and north-central Kazakhstan.
Severe to exceptional deficits will occur throughout most of eastern Europe. Severe to exceptional surpluses in western Europe are expected to dissipate.
The forecast through September indicates water surpluses in Sonora and the Yucatan and deficits from Mexico City through southern Veracruz. Surpluses will shrink in Central America and deficits will nearly disappear in the Caribbean.
The forecast through September indicates nearly normal water conditions for Toronto, Regina, and Vancouver; surpluses for Calgary and Edmonton; and deficits in Québec City, Montreal, Ottawa, and Winnipeg. Deficits will disappear from southern Saskatchewan and increase in southern Quebec.
The forecast through September indicates that water surpluses will shrink and downgrade in the South, Southeast, and Upper Midwest. Deficits will persist in Northern California, shrink and downgrade in the Rockies and Southwest, and increase in the Northeast.
The forecast through September indicates significant water deficits in Peru, Mato Grosso and Mato Grosso do Sul in Brazil, Suriname, French Guiana, northern Chile, and on the Paraguay River. Moderate deficits will emerge in central Brazil and surpluses will persist in the east.
The forecast through September indicates exceptional water deficits across northern Australia. Widespread surpluses in the southeast will shrink, persisting in the central Murray-Darling Basin. Intense deficits will shrink in New Zealand.