Canada: Water deficits to increase in Southern Quebec

Canada: Water deficits to increase in Southern Quebec

24 July 2020

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month outlook for Canada through March 2021 indicates vast areas of exceptional water deficit in Quebec including west of Lake Mistassini and in a wide path on the eastern border and into western Labrador. Exceptional deficits are also expected in a column along Ontario’s northeastern border. Deficits of varying intensity, including exceptional deficits, are forecast for Newfoundland, New Brunswick, Quebec’s Gaspé Peninsula and Southern Quebec, Southern Ontario, and the western half of Northern Ontario.

Deficits will be exceptional in other areas of the country including the southwest corner of Hudson Bay, a belt across central Manitoba north of Lake Winnipeg reaching into Ontario, the Middle Reaches of the Athabasca River Watershed in central Alberta and Alberta’s northwest corner. Intense deficits are also forecast for northwestern British Columbia leading well into the Yukon. Relatively small pockets of deficit will surround Winnipeg, Manitoba and Regina, Saskatchewan.

Much of northern Saskatchewan can expect conditions of extreme to exceptional surplus leading north well past Lake Athabasca into the Northwest Territories and west past Fort McMurray, Alberta. Surpluses are also expected around Calgary, Alberta. In British Columbia, severe surpluses are expected around Fort St. John and exceptional surpluses in the southern Columbia Mountains.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

The forecast through September for Canada’s most populated areas indicates nearly normal water conditions for Toronto, Regina, Saskatoon, and Vancouver; surpluses for Calgary and Edmonton; and deficits in Québec City, Montreal, Ottawa, and Winnipeg.

The distribution pattern of anomalies forecast nation-wide through September is expected to be much like observed conditions of the prior three months with the following exceptions. Deficits in southern Saskatchewan will disappear and deficits around Winnipeg, Manitoba will downgrade but will be severe. Surpluses will increase in northwestern Manitoba. In Quebec, areas of prior surplus south of the Gouin Reservoir will transition to deficit. The extent of exceptional deficit in central and northern Alberta will shrink, and southern British Columbia surpluses will increase slightly.

From October through December, deficits will decrease overall, particularly in Quebec. Exceptional deficits will persist in some areas of the province including west of Lake Mistassini and at the mouth of the St. Lawrence River. Deficits south of the St. Lawrence in Quebec will downgrade and deficits in provinces to the east will shrink and downgrade. Deficits around Winnipeg will nearly disappear. In Alberta, deficit and surplus anomalies will shrink. In BC, deficits will disappear from Vancouver Island, nearly disappear in the center of the province, and shrink in the north. Surpluses in the southeast will downgrade.

The forecast for the final three months – January through March 2021 – indicates conditions similar to the October through December forecast.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Storms ripped through southern Alberta in mid-July, leaving fields that looked more like lakes. Hail shredded wheat and canola crops and one farmer predicted that he’ll see his worst harvest in 18 years. July’s storm followed a hailstorm in June that caused insured damages estimated at CAN $1.2 billion to homes, crops, and vehicles.

A wave of hot weather combined with the coronovirus pandemic has increased water use throughout Quebec, causing officials in some communities to ask residents to restrict water use.

Rainfall in Ontario has been inadequate and a drought advisory is in effect for the South Nation Conservation jurisdiction. Hot weather has compounded ill effects, including low crop yields, livestock stress, and municipal water demand.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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