Exceptional surpluses will persist in northern regions of Mainland Southeast Asia. Most areas of Maritime Southeast Asia will observe near-normal conditions.
Severe to exceptional surpluses are expected to persist in several regions of India and emerge in Bangladesh. Some South Asian countries will observe isolated pockets of deficit.
Exceptional deficit anomalies will continue in southern regions of the Middle East, as well as in coastal regions of Turkey. Isolated pockets of exceptional deficit will also persist in Iran. Southwestern coastal areas of the Middle East will continue to observe moderate to severe surplus.
Exceptional deficits will remain in areas near Lake Baikal and in much of western Russia. Northern and southeastern Kazakhstan will observe continuing surpluses of varying intensity, as will some Russian areas near the Lena River.
The July Outlook includes exceptionally warmer than normal temperatures in many areas, notably a vast block of eastern North America including the Great Lakes States, the U.S. Northeast, and well into Canada. Central Europe will be considerably drier than normal while wetter conditions are expected in the Balkans.
The forecast through August indicates deficits in the Northeast, which could be exceptional in southern Maine. Moderate to severe surpluses are forecast scattered from Virginia through Alabama, and covering nearly all of Florida. Primarily moderate deficits are forecast for the Mississippi River Basin. Intense deficits are forecast for western Colorado, northern Utah, western Oregon, western Washington, and southernmost Texas. Primarily moderate deficits are expected in California. Surpluses will diminish in Idaho and downgrade slightly from exceptional in Montana.
The near-term forecast through September shows a distribution pattern of water anomalies similar to the prior three months with some decrease in intensity. However, surpluses are forecast to increase in the central Gulf Coast. Beyond September water anomalies will continue to become less severe, though pockets of exceptional surplus will persist in Idaho and its neighbors. The forecast through March 2018 indicates the emergence of primarily moderate surpluses in many parts of the country.
Regions likely to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period from September 2016 through August 2017 include: the US South; Chile; Scandinavia; northern Africa, southern Somalia, and South Africa; the Middle East; southern India; Cambodia; and northern Russia. Water surpluses are forecast for: southern Minnesota, Nicaragua, Kazakhstan, Bangladesh, western Myanmar, Laos, Vietnam, and Jiangsu and Shanghai, China This watch list is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) Global Water Monitor and Forecast issued 6 December 2016.
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