Australia & New Zealand
ISciences staff
Australia & New Zealand: Surpluses ...

The forecast indicates that extreme to exceptional surpluses in northern Australia will diminish, though will still remain present in some regions of Northern Territory. Exceptional deficits across the continent will similarly dissipate, though severe deficits are expected along the southern coast of Victoria. 

Australia & New Zealand: Surpluses continues in north-central Australia
East Asia
ISciences staff
East Asia: Deficits continue in NW China, ...

The forecast indicates that exceptional deficits will persist in northwestern China, southwestern Mongolia, and in the Yangtze River Basin. Surpluses of severe to exceptional intensity are expected to appear in western, southern, and northeastern regions of China. 

East Asia: Deficits continue in NW China, Yangtze River Basin
South Asia
ISciences staff
South Asia: Surpluses expand throughout India ...

The forecast indicates that extreme to exceptional surpluses will persist throughout India and Nepal. Exceptional deficits will expand throughout regions of Afghanistan and Pakistan. 

South Asia: Surpluses expand throughout India and Nepal
United States
ISciences staff
United States: Exceptional deficits to emerge ...

The forecast indicates that exceptional deficits will occur in southwestern states, as well as in some areas of the Midwest. Severe to exceptional surpluses will linger in southern regions of Florida and in much of the noncontiguous U.S. 

United States: Exceptional deficits to emerge in SW states
Southeast Asia & Pacific
ISciences staff
Southeast Asia and the Pacific: Surpluses ...

The forecast indicates that severe to exceptional deficits will resolve throughout much of Southeast Asia. Exceptional surpluses are expected to persist in some countries within Mainland Southeast Asia. 

Southeast Asia and the Pacific: Surpluses emerge in Myanmar, Laos, Vietnam

Jalisco

Mexico, Central America, & the Caribbean: Intense water deficits forecast in Panama

Mexico, Central America, & the Caribbean: Intense water deficits forecast in Panama

The forecast through May indicates a patchwork of water anomalies. In Mexico, moderate to extreme deficits are forecast in Nayarit, Guerrero, Chiapas, and Yucatan. Conditions of both deficit and surplus are forecast from southern Durango southeast through Morelos. Regions forecast with surpluses include northern Coahuila, Nuevo León, southern Tamaulipas, eastern San Luis Potosí, Distrito Federal, and northern Oaxaca into central Veracruz. Exceptional deficits are expected in western Panama, and moderate deficits in Dominican Republic.

Mexico, Central America, & the Caribbean: Deficits in Baja to downgrade but remain severe

Mexico, Central America, & the Caribbean: Deficits in Baja to downgrade but remain severe

In the next few months water deficits in Baja will downgrade somewhat. Moderate deficits are forecast for Chihuahua, Coahuila, Tamaulipas, central Mexico, and along the Gulf from Veracruz into Yucatan. Surpluses in Central America will shrink considerably. Intense surpluses are forecast for Jamaica; deficits are forecast for Haiti and Dominican Republic. After July, intense deficits will emerge in southern Mexico and northern Central America.

Mexico, Central America, & the Caribbean: Water deficits in Baja, Nayarit, & W Cuba

Mexico, Central America, & the Caribbean: Water deficits in Baja, Nayarit, & W Cuba

In the next few months, exceptional water deficits will retreat in northwestern Mexico but persist in southern Baja and emerge in Nayarit. Severe deficits are forecast in the north-central states and along the Rio Grande. Some pockets of surplus are expected in southern Mexico and northern Guatemala, and more intense surpluses in Honduras, Nicaragua, and Costa Rica. Severe deficit is forecast for western Cuba and the Bahamas. After April, deficits will downgrade in southern Baja and surpluses will emerge in western Mexico from Durango into Oaxaca.

Mexico, Central America, & the Caribbean: Water deficits forecast for Baja & Nayarit

Mexico, Central America, & the Caribbean: Water deficits forecast for Baja & Nayarit

Intense water deficits across northwestern Mexico are expected to moderate from January through March, but moderate to severe deficits will spread in the north-central states. Intense deficits will emerge in Nayarit, Jalisco, Colima, and Michoacán. Deficits in western Cuba will moderate. Significant surpluses are expected to persist in Honduras, Nicaragua, northern Costa Rica, and Jamaica. After March, deficits are forecast in northern Mexico, moderate surpluses along the southwestern coast, and surpluses in Central America will diminish. 

ISciences Worldwide Water Watch List January 2018

ISciences Worldwide Water Watch List January 2018

Regions forecast to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period from October 2017 through September 2018 include: Missouri (US), Brazil, Spain, Portugal, Morocco, Turkmenistan, Inner Mongolia (China), and South Australia and Tasmania (Australia). Areas with a forecast of significant water surplus include: Ireland, Poland, and Bangladesh. This Watch List is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) run on 10 January 2018.

Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

For more information contact info@isciences.com.

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