The forecast indicates that extreme to exceptional surpluses in northern Australia will diminish, though will still remain present in some regions of Northern Territory. Exceptional deficits across the continent will similarly dissipate, though severe deficits are expected along the southern coast of Victoria.
The forecast indicates that exceptional deficits will persist in northwestern China, southwestern Mongolia, and in the Yangtze River Basin. Surpluses of severe to exceptional intensity are expected to appear in western, southern, and northeastern regions of China.
The forecast indicates that extreme to exceptional surpluses will persist throughout India and Nepal. Exceptional deficits will expand throughout regions of Afghanistan and Pakistan.
The forecast indicates that exceptional deficits will occur in southwestern states, as well as in some areas of the Midwest. Severe to exceptional surpluses will linger in southern regions of Florida and in much of the noncontiguous U.S.
Regions forecast to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period of March 2020 through February 2021 include: Chile, Venezuela, French Guiana, Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Equatorial Guinea, and Gabon. Areas with a forecast of significant water surplus include: Kenya, Tanzania, Pakistan, Afghanistan, northern European Russia, and Tennessee and Michigan in the US. This Watch List is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model v2 (WSIMv2) run on 5 June 2020.
The forecast through May indicates widespread water surpluses in the Northern Plains States and Upper Midwest, severe-to-exceptional in the Dakotas and Nebraska. Moderate surpluses are expected in Tennessee, the Carolinas, Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia. Areas of deficit include central Colorado, southeastern Texas, and northern California.
Most notable in the forecast through May is the absence of widespread, intense water surpluses observed in the East in prior months and the emergence of surpluses in the West. Surpluses will shrink and downgrade in the center of the country but remain widespread in a broad path from southern Minnesota to the Gulf of Mexico and will be intense in Kansas. Moderate surpluses will cover much of California, and many Rocky Mountain States will transition from deficit to surplus.
Exceptional water surpluses are forecast in southeastern Texas through November along with surpluses of lesser severity along the Gulf. Exceptional deficits in the Northern Plains States will moderate. In the West, surpluses are forecast in Idaho, nearby areas of surrounding states, and pockets of central California. Deficits are expected in: northern Colorado, Kansas, Iowa, northeastern and southernmost Texas, southern Michigan, northwestern Pennsylvania, northern Maine, southern West Virginia, and the Southeast. After November moderate surpluses are forecast for the Ohio River Valley.
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