ISciences Worldwide Water Watch List June 2020

ISCIENCES WORLDWIDE WATER WATCH LIST JUNE 2020

15 June 2020

This map presents a selection of regions likely to encounter significant water anomalies during the one year period beginning in March 2020 and running through February 2021 using 3 months of observed temperature and precipitation data and 9 months of forecast data.

The synopsis that follows provides highlights of regional water forecasts. Regional details are available in ISciences Global Water Monitor & Forecast Watch List June 15, 2020 (pdf).

United States: The forecast through August indicates that water surpluses will shrink and downgrade considerably but will persist from South Dakota into Nebraska, and in the South from Arkansas through the Carolinas. Areas of deficit include northern California, Utah, and Colorado.

Canada: The forecast through August indicates water surpluses near Toronto, Edmonton, and Calgary; and deficits near Montreal, Ottawa, and Winnipeg. Deficits will retreat from southern Saskatchewan. Intense deficits will persist in northern Quebec. Surpluses will increase in southeastern British Columbia.

Mexico, Central America, and the Caribbean: The forecast through August indicates that water conditions will normalize in much of Mexico though intense surpluses will persist in northeastern Sonora and moderate deficits will emerge in Baja. Surpluses are forecast in Central America.

South America: The forecast through August indicates that water deficits will shrink and downgrade overall but widespread deficits are forecast from western Amazonas, Brazil through São Paulo State and in much of Peru. Surpluses are forecast for eastern Brazil.

Europe: The forecast through August indicates water deficits around the Baltic Sea, Central Europe, Ireland and the U.K., the northern Balkans, and Italy. Anomalies will be exceptional in Finland, Estonia, and Latvia. Areas of surplus include the Iberian Peninsula and northern European Russia.

Africa: The forecast through August indicates that water deficits will increase and intensify across northern Africa; nearly normal conditions are forecast in the Sahel. Surpluses in East Africa will remain widespread, particularly in Tanzania. Intense deficits will emerge in south-central Botswana.

Middle East: The forecast through August indicates that widespread water surpluses in the region will shrink on the Arabian Peninsula as transitions occur but persist in Iran, northern Iraq, and from northern Syria into Turkey. Areas of deficit include central Iran; Riyadh Province, Saudi Arabia; and Oman.

Central Asia and Russia: The forecast through August indicates that water surpluses from northern European Russia through the Western Siberian Plain will shrink. Deficits are forecast for the Taz, Lower Yenisei, and Tunguska River regions in Russia and in western Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan.

South Asia: The forecast through August indicates that water surpluses will shrink in India, leaving a broad path from Gujarat into the Gangetic Plain. Surpluses will moderate in Bangladesh, but remain widespread and intense in Pakistan and Afghanistan. Conditions in Tamil Nadu will normalize from prior deficit.

Southeast Asia and the Pacific: The forecast through August indicates that water deficits will shrink and downgrade leaving surpluses as the predominant anomaly, particularly in Indonesia. Surpluses will be intense in Aceh Province, Sumatra. Deficits in Thailand and Cambodia will nearly disappear.

East Asia: The forecast through August indicates that water surpluses will persist in the Yellow River Basin, downgrade in the Yangtze, and retreat from the Pearl. Deficits will moderate in Yunnan and emerge in Hainan. Near-normal conditions are forecast for Taiwan, the Korean Peninsula, and Japan.

Australia & New Zealand: The forecast through August indicates that widespread water surpluses will persist in the Murray-Darling Basin, and exceptional deficits will emerge across northern Australia. Intense deficits are forecast for North Island, New Zealand, particularly in the Waikato River region.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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