Australia & New Zealand: Water deficits will persist in North Island NZ

Australia & New Zealand: Water deficits will persist in North Island NZ

17 June 2020

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast through February 2021 indicates surpluses of varying intensity in the Murray-Darling Basin in southeastern Australia and at the mouth of the Murray in South Australia. Surpluses will reach exceptional intensity in South Australia between the Murray River and the Victoria border and in the Riverina area of New South Wales, particularly around Griffith. Tasmania can expect some surpluses in the northeast, but severe deficits are forecast in the southwest around Lakes Pedder and Gordon.

In Queensland, surpluses are forecast in the northwest corner of the Darling Downs. A small pocket of intense deficit is expected in Channel Country and also on the northeast coast. Moderate to severe deficits are forecast in Arnhem Land, Northern Territory. In Western Australia, exceptional surpluses are forecast in the southwest corner of the Gibson Desert, intense deficits in the northwest corner, and severe deficits in the Great Sandy Desert, coastal Kimberley, and in the coastal southwest. Some surpluses are expected in western South Australia.

Intense deficits are expected in North Island, New Zealand, particularly around Lake Taupo. Moderate deficits are forecast along much of the east coast of South Island but deficits will be more intense in the northern portion of the island. Moderate deficits are forecast for New Caledonia.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in greater detail.

The forecast through August indicates that widespread surpluses will persist in southeastern Australia, and vast pockets of exceptional deficit will emerge across the northern reaches of the nation. Surpluses will persist in the Murray-Darling Basin though the extent will shrink in Victoria. Anomalies will be extreme to exceptional in the central Macquarie River Catchment and from the mouth of the Murray in South Australia (SA) to the Victoria (VIC) border. Surpluses in the northwest corner of the Darling Downs in Queensland (QLD) will downgrade. In Tasmania (TAS), surpluses will nearly disappear, though moderate anomalies are forecast on Flinders Island and deficits will intensify around Lakes Pedder and Gordon, becoming exceptional.

Exceptional deficits will emerge in the north in Far North QLD; in Top End, Northern Territory (NT); and a vast block spanning the northern border of Western Australia (WA) and NT from the Kimberley Plateau through the Tanami Desert. Prior widespread deficits in the west and in Channel Country in the east will nearly disappear, though moderate to extreme anomalies will persist in the nation’s southwestern tip from Perth past Busselton. Exceptional surpluses will re-emerge in the western Gibson Desert in WA, as will surpluses of varying intensity along rivers leading north and a broken path to the south.

In New Zealand, deficits will remain widespread on North Island and exceptional anomalies will increase in the Waikato River region. Deficits in South Island will shrink slightly but will persist on the east coast. Some pockets of moderate surplus will emerge on the west coast in the Southern Alps and Fiordland. Deficits in New Caledonia will moderate.

From September through November, surpluses will persist in the Murray-Darling Basin, east of Adelaide, and in the west around the Gibson Desert and nearby rivers. Mild deficits are forecast across northern Australia with moderate anomalies in Top End, NT and a small, exceptional pocket in Arnhem Land. Moderate surpluses will emerge in the Upper Victoria River region of NT and in pockets of the Barkly Tableland in the eastern part of the state. A small pocket of intense deficit will persist on the northeast coast of QLD south of Cairns. Conditions in TAS and New Zealand will become nearly normal with some lingering deficits.

The forecast for the final months – December through February – indicates persistent surpluses in southeastern Australia and in the Gibson Desert of the northwest, mild surpluses across the north, and mild deficits in the center of the nation. Nearly normal conditions are expected in TAS, New Zealand, and New Caledonia.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
In response to drought conditions in North Island, New Zealand, the federal ministry of agriculture has approved $500,000 (US $323,611) in drought relief to farmers in Waikato and Northland for the purchase and delivery of feed supplies. A comparable amount was awarded earlier in May to the Hawk’s Bay region. One kiwi orchard reported a crop loss of 40 percent.

The drought has also affected training exercises and operational protocols of New Zealand’s armed forces. Bases in the Auckland area have closed swimming pools used for sea survival training, outsourcing the activity to other regions, and have reduced water used for washing fleet vehicles and aircraft. Defense forces have been deployed to deliver water to some drought-stricken towns.

The Narran Lakes Wetlands in New South Wales, Australia, is enjoying renewed vigor after significant rainfall in the Condomine-Balonne catchment to the north made its way to the Narran Lakes Nature Reserve whose wetlands in the Murray-Darling River Basin are protected under the U.N. Ramsar Convention. For the first time in seven years the lake is full and able to support the natural diversity for which it is renowned.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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