South Asia: Water surpluses to persist in Pakistan & Afghanistan

South Asia: Water surpluses to persist in Pakistan & Afghanistan

18 June 2020

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast through February 2021 indicates moderate to severe water surpluses for India in a vast area from Gujarat in the west reaching northeast into the Gangetic Plain, encompassing much of Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, eastern Rajasthan, and Uttar Pradesh. Surpluses will also reach south in a narrow path down the center of Karnataka, becoming more intense. Moderate surpluses will follow the Ganges River through Bihar. Moderate deficits are expected in Tamil Nadu at India’s southern tip and in the nation’s Far Northeast.

Surpluses will be intense through the center of Nepal along the Gandaki River, downgrading as it joins the Ganges in India. Surpluses are also forecast for nearly all of Bangladesh, and in western Bhutan and western Sri Lanka. Extreme to exceptional surpluses are expected in much of Pakistan’s northern two-thirds. Similar surplus anomalies are expected in much of Afghanistan, encompassing Kandahar, Kabul, Mazar-e Sharif, and tracing the paths of the Helmand and Harirud Rivers. Exceptional deficits are forecast north of Karachi, Pakistan.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month composites (below) show the evolving conditions in greater detail.

Surplus anomalies observed across the breadth of the India in prior months will shrink June through August, leaving nearly normal conditions in many regions. However, widespread surpluses are forecast from Gujarat into the Gangetic Plain. Anomalies will be severe in Gujarat and southern Rajasthan, moderate to exceptional in Madhya Pradesh and moderate to severe in Uttar Pradesh. Surpluses will also reach south into Maharashtra and cut a path down the center of Karnataka, becoming exceptional before moderating to the east through Andhra Pradesh. India’s far north can expect intense surpluses, and conditions in Tamil Nadu in the nation’s southern tip will normalize, transitioning from intense deficit.

In Nepal, surpluses will be intense on the Gandaki River through the center of the nation, downgrading as it joins the Ganges in India. Surpluses in Bangladesh will downgrade from exceptional but will remain widespread. Primarily moderate surpluses are expected in Sri Lanka. Surpluses will remain widespread and intense in Pakistan’s northern two-thirds and in the bulk of eastern Afghanistan with moderate anomalies in the west. Transitional conditions are expected near Afghanistan’s southern border and exceptional deficits will emerge across the border in Pakistan while deficits near Karachi retreat.

From September through November, surpluses will downgrade but persist in India from Gujarat into the Gangetic Plain, retreating from central Karnataka while emerging along its coast and to the south. Nearly normal conditions are forecast for the Ganges River in Bihar, India’s Far Northeast, Nepal, and Bhutan. Surpluses will shrink considerably in Bangladesh and Sri Lanka. In Pakistan, surpluses will shrink slightly but remain intense; exceptional deficits will emerge in the south near Karachi and moderate deficits in the southwest. Transitional conditions are forecast for Afghanistan though extreme to exceptional surpluses will persist in many areas including Kandahar, Kabul, and Peshawar.

The forecast for the final months – December through February – indicates that surpluses will persist in India in a distribution pattern similar to the prior three months but with transitional conditions in Gujarat as deficits emerge and reach into southeastern Pakistan. Intense surpluses will persist in central Pakistan, and surpluses along with transitional conditions are forecast for Afghanistan.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
In late May, Cyclone Amphan in the Bay of Bengal killed at least 82 people in India and Bangladesh, creating a storm surge of five meters that flooded coastal areas.

Torrential rain from Amphan hit India’s far northeastern state of Assam, affecting at least 70,000 people in 92 villages. Over 24,000 hectares of cropland remain submerged and erosion on the Brahamaputra River washed out part of a national highway in Golagha District and threatens land in Dibrugarh District. Relief efforts are further challenged by the global COVID-19 pandemic as flood shelters become crowded.

Pakistan’s National Disaster Management Authority says the country is facing a triple threat from flooding, locusts, and COVID-19. Some areas in the north received 29 to 33 percent more snowfall this past winter, and heavy rainfall in early June triggered flooding in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province that killed seven people. Glacial lake overflow from the Shishper Glacier hit a village in the Hunza District, destroying cherry, apricot, and walnut orchards and damaging retaining walls and hydropower infrastructure.

At least nine people are dead after heavy rainfall triggered flooding and landslides in Gandaki Pradesh, Nepal.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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