The forecast indicates that extreme to exceptional surpluses in northern Australia will diminish, though will still remain present in some regions of Northern Territory. Exceptional deficits across the continent will similarly dissipate, though severe deficits are expected along the southern coast of Victoria.
The forecast indicates that exceptional deficits will persist in northwestern China, southwestern Mongolia, and in the Yangtze River Basin. Surpluses of severe to exceptional intensity are expected to appear in western, southern, and northeastern regions of China.
The forecast indicates that extreme to exceptional surpluses will persist throughout India and Nepal. Exceptional deficits will expand throughout regions of Afghanistan and Pakistan.
The forecast indicates that exceptional deficits will occur in southwestern states, as well as in some areas of the Midwest. Severe to exceptional surpluses will linger in southern regions of Florida and in much of the noncontiguous U.S.
The forecast through November indicates that water deficits will downgrade considerably overall leaving mild to moderate deficits, but deficits will be intense along the Arkansas River through Kansas and Colorado, western Colorado, northeastern Utah, along the Canadian River through Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle, and in the US Northeast. Areas of surplus include: Montana, the Black Hills of South Dakota, northern Nebraska, Iowa, Wisconsin, and eastern Pennsylvania.
Intense water surpluses in the Ohio River Valley and the Lower Mississippi Basin will retreat considerably. Surpluses in western Montana and northern Idaho will remain intense. Exceptional deficits will persist in Utah and increase in southwest Colorado, but deficits in surrounding states will moderate. On the East Coast deficits will retreat, except in South Carolina and Georgia. Southern Florida will transition from deficit to surplus. Moderate deficits are forecast for Nebraska, eastern North Dakota, Minnesota, and northern Wisconsin.
Regions forecast to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period from February 2018 through January 2019 include: Brazil, southern Venezuela, Libya, Egypt, Gabon, Finland, Saudi Arabia, and Afghanistan. Areas with a forecast of significant water surplus include: Idaho and western Montana (US), southeastern British Columbia (Canada), Tanzania, Kenya, Spain, Hungary, southern Romania, and eastern Ukraine. This Watch List is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) run on 9 May 2018.
The forecast through June indicates that deficits will diminish and downgrade in the South Atlantic States, retreat considerably in the Gulf States, downgrade to moderate in the Southern Plains States, persist with intensity in the Southwest, and shrink in central California. Surpluses are forecast for Idaho, Montana, western Wyoming, Nebraska, South Dakota, Iowa, Missouri, and along the Missouri and Yellowstone Rivers. Surpluses will be exceptional in Idaho and Montana. Surpluses in the Ohio River Valley will diminish. After June, anomalies will downgrade, but persist.
Regions forecast to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period from January 2018 through December 2018 include: the US Southwest, Brazil, southern Venezuela, northern Africa, Gabon, Zambia, Finland, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran, and Afghanistan. Areas with a forecast of significant water surplus include: Idaho, southern British Columbia, Tanzania, Hungary, southern Romania, and Ukraine. This Watch List is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) run on 10 April 2018.
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