The forecast through May indicates the emergence of a vast stretch of extreme to exceptional water deficits in southern and eastern Mongolia and Inner Mongolia, China. Widespread surpluses will downgrade but persist in the Yangtze Basin’s Lower Reaches and in the southern portion of the Middle Reaches. Moderate deficits will emerge in Hainan and conditions in Taiwan will transition to near-normal. Intense deficits will emerge on the Korean Peninsula and will increase in much of Japan.
Central Asia & Russia: Water deficits forecast in Fergana Valley
The forecast through May indicates that water surpluses in Russia’s Ob River Basin will downgrade but remain widespread. Other areas of surplus include eastern Kyrgyzstan, western Tajikistan, and southern Turkmenistan. Deficits are forecast for the Volga River Basin, the Fergana Valley in eastern Uzbekistan and into Kyrgyzstan, central Tajikistan, and southern Kazakhstan. Deficits will be intense in the Fergana Valley.
Mexico, Central America, & the Caribbean: Intense water deficits forecast in Panama
The forecast through May indicates a patchwork of water anomalies. In Mexico, moderate to extreme deficits are forecast in Nayarit, Guerrero, Chiapas, and Yucatan. Conditions of both deficit and surplus are forecast from southern Durango southeast through Morelos. Regions forecast with surpluses include northern Coahuila, Nuevo León, southern Tamaulipas, eastern San Luis Potosí, Distrito Federal, and northern Oaxaca into central Veracruz. Exceptional deficits are expected in western Panama, and moderate deficits in Dominican Republic.
Middle East: Intense water deficits forecast for Kuwait & nearby regions
The forecast through May indicates that water deficits will downgrade considerably, though an intense pocket will persist around Kuwait and deficits will be severe in Yemen. Surpluses will downgrade overall but exceptional surpluses are forecast for northern Syria; near Mosul, Iraq; along Iran’s Caspian Sea coast northeast of Tehran; and in Khuzestan, Iran.
Europe: Water deficits to increase overall in the coming months
The forecast through May indicates an increase in the extent of water deficits overall. Though surpluses are forecast for Austria, Switzerland, Norway, and northwestern Sweden, much of the rest of Europe can expect deficit conditions. Exceptional deficits will persist in Finland, southern Sweden, Estonia, Latvia, eastern Slovenia, and Croatia. Severe deficits will be widespread in Portugal, Spain, France, and Hungary. Pockets of intense deficit are forecast for many other regions.