In this new series, we examine recent prolonged drought in the Yangtze River Basin, its impact on the affected regions, and the historical accuracy of the Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) forecasts in East Asia.
Exceptional deficits will spread throughout the Russian Plain, northern coastal Russia, and regions near Lake Baikal. Surpluses are expected in some portions of northern Russia and north-central Kazakhstan.
Severe to exceptional deficits will occur throughout most of eastern Europe. Severe to exceptional surpluses in western Europe are expected to dissipate.
The forecast indicates intense anomalies will be present throughout Russia, with intense surpluses in its eastern and central regions, and notable deficits throughout its northern and southern regions.
The forecast indicates major water surpluses to continue in Pakistan and regions of Afghanistan, which reach into smaller areas of India. Other regions including India, Bangladesh, and western Afghanistan can anticipate deficits of varying intensity.
The forecast indicates pockets of exceptional anomalies throughout East Asia, with intense deficits occurring in northern and southern regions of China, and notable surpluses in its southwestern and northeastern regions.
The forecast indicates that much of the Middle East will experience extreme to exceptional transitional conditions, as well as pockets of exceptional deficits in Saudi Arabia, Yemen, and Oman. Surpluses of similar intensity are expected to emerge in areas within Syria, Iraq, and Iran.
The forecast anticipates widespread deficits throughout much of Africa, with intense deficits throughout central and southern regions. Some pockets of intense deficits, as well as transitional conditions, are strewn throughout the continent’s southern regions.