Africa: Deficits persist in central, eastern Africa

26 May 2023

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast anticipates widespread deficits throughout much of Africa, with intense deficits throughout central and southern regions. Some pockets of intense deficits, as well as transitional conditions, are strewn throughout the continent’s southern regions.

Deficits of varying intensity are expected to occur in:

Central to northern Mauritania, throughout the Fderik and Bir Moghrein Department into northern regions of Mali’s Salam area.
Northern and southern Morocco, in the Rabat-Salé-Kénitra province and coastal regions of the Essaouira province.
Western Sahara, throughout much of the country’s central and southern regions.
Northern Somalia, throughout the Berbera District.
Southwestern Gabon, throughout the Ogooue-Maritime province.
Southwestern Angola, covering southwestern areas of the city of Tombua.
Southwestern Namibia, in southern areas of the Karas Region.
Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), appearing in pockets throughout the central and northern areas of the country.
Southwestern Republic of Congo, throughout the Zanaga department and southern regions of the Djambala District.
Northwestern Sudan, near the Laqiya Arba'in area.

Areas expected to observe extreme to exceptional surplus include:

Northern Nigeria, spreading along the country’s northern border shared with Niger.
Western and southern Tanzania, throughout the Tabora region and further southwest into areas near Lake Malawi.
Southeastern Botswana, in regions west of the city of Gaborone.
Southern Mozambique, throughout the Maputo Province.
Southeastern Libya, near the Kufra District.

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through July 2023 anticipates exceptional deficits in most of Morocco and Mauritania to downgrade, becoming moderate to severe deficits, but will persist in northern Morocco and southern portions of Western Sahara. Northeastern areas of the DRC near the town of Niangara can expect extreme to exceptional deficits to emerge, as well as in southern Somalia, west of the city of Mogadishu. In southern Angola and northern Namibia, intense deficits are forecast to appear along the country’s shared border, extending further south into areas near Namibia’s Etosha National Park. The forecast predicts similarly intense deficits to develop in central to southern Botswana. Extreme to exceptional surplus is expected along the northern border of Nigeria, as well as central Chad, western and southern Tanzania, and southern Mozambique.

From August through October 2023, intense deficits are expected to disappear from much of the continent, with some moderate to severe deficits appearing in west-central DRC, Uganda, and Republic of Congo. Areas expected to observe extreme to exceptional surplus include western Tanzania, south-central Botswana, eastern South Africa, and Eswatini.

The forecast for the final months – November 2023 through January 2024 – anticipates most intense anomalies to subside, becoming normal conditions or mild deficits across much of the country. Some intense anomalies are expected to continue, particularly exceptional deficits in central to southwestern Mauritania, north-central Nigeria, and pockets throughout Sudan. Much of western Tanzania, central Kenya, and pockets within and the Moma District of Mozambique can expect moderate surplus.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
As of May 24th, donors have raised around a billion dollars to assist the drought-stricken Horn of Africa, falling short of an appeal which requested $7 billion. The U.N. says $7 billion is needed to assist nearly 32 million people in the Horn of Africa, of which are facing acute food insecurity amid unprecedented drought. With the year nearly half over, U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said they have received just 20% of the requested funds. “We must act now to prevent crisis from turning into catastrophe,” Guterres told donors. “Without an immediate and major injection of funding, emergency operations will grind to a halt and people will die.”

It has been three years since Tunisia has had adequate rain, forcing locals to exhaust reservoirs and ration water. Agricultural officials report that the country must import 95% of its grains this year, with an outlook of harvesting only 250,000 tonnes of grain; a third of what last year’s harvest. Similarly, bakeries in the area are running out of flour, with bakers having to ration their bread as they face shortages of imported goods. Farmers report major reduction in farmable land, as well as worries of food scarcity, with one stating, “In the past, there were more severe years of drought compared to today, but the crisis was not like this, it hadn’t been this severe before. This year people are at risk of starvation.”

As the summer harvest season begins in North Africa, severe drought in the agriculture-dependent region is expected to inhibit crop growth, as well as increase risk of social and economic instability. Northwestern Africa, particularly Morocco, Algeria, and Tunisia, is among the driest places in the world, and along with a pre-existing drought, the lack of rainfall is worsening the area’s water scarcity. With harvests of grain crops just beginning, these dry conditions have led regional farmers and U.N. observers to forecast poor crop yields.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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